The accurate assessment of the remaining strength of corroded pipes is a subject that has been increasingly investigated over the past decades. This is because of the risk of significant social, economic, and environmental effects that may be caused by an accident. The finite element method has been successfully used to predict the collapse pressure considering external load. It was also used in this study. The literature primarily focused on the corroded pipes subjected to internal pressure. In this study, the out-of-roundness (ovalization) of the pipe was considered to evaluate the collapse pressure. Uncertainties should be incorporated into a computational model to assess the reliability of corroded pipes. Three methods for evaluation of the probability of failure were used: the first-order reliability method (FORM), traditional Monte Carlo (MC), and a new proposed methodology that combines MC results with the kernel density estimation method (MCkde). The probability of failure of ovalized corroded pipes subject to external pressure was computed. The results exhibited a good agreement between FORM and MCkde method. The statistical importance of each random variable was observed and the results were compared with those from intact ovalized pipes. The computation cost of the MC method with numerical simulation limits its use to the application under study. Solutions using the FORM and MCkde methods exhibited good agreement with those of the full MC method. However, the computational effort of the latter was independent of the stochastic dimension, and it was a derivative-free method. As expected, in general, the solutions based on empirical methods were conservative.

在过去的几十年中，越来越多地研究对腐蚀的管道的剩余强度进行准确评估的问题。这是因为事故可能导致重大的社会，经济和环境影响。考虑到外部载荷，有限元方法已成功用于预测坍塌压力。在这项研究中也使用了它。文献主要集中在承受内压的腐蚀管道上。在这项研究中，考虑了管道的不圆度（椭圆形）来评估坍塌压力。不确定度应纳入计算模型以评估腐蚀管道的可靠性。使用了三种评估失败概率的方法：一阶可靠性方法（FORM），传统的蒙特卡洛（MC），以及将MC结果与核密度估计方法（MCkde）相结合的新方法。计算了椭圆形腐蚀管道在外部压力作用下的失效概率。结果显示出FORM和MCkde方法之间的良好一致性。观察每个随机变量的统计重要性，并将结果与​​完整椭圆形管道的结果进行比较。具有数值模拟的MC方法的计算成本限制了其在研究中的应用范围。使用FORM和MCkde方法的解决方案与完全MC方法的解决方案具有很好的一致性。但是，后者的计算工作量与随机维数无关，并且是无导数方法。符合预期，