When the augmented reality (AR) industry was first forming, many hyperbolic futures were imagined. These futures served important functions, whether it was growing the community, motivating investors, or setting priorities for AR companies. Over time, however, futures and collective expectations for the technology can change dramatically. This study analyzes two futures data sets to understand 10 years of futures surrounding AR—one from years of participant observation at AR conferences, the other from a digital archive of media about wearable technologies called FABRIC. By comparing a 10-year period of futures as AR moved across stages of the development cycle, this study identifies specific ways in which flows of discourses worked to shape the conferences, which in turn shaped the collective futures and expectations about AR. This study builds on our empirical and theoretical understanding of futures by comparing futures across multiple levels (macro/micro) and longitudinally mapping the interrelationships between streams of futures.

当增强现实（AR）行业首次形成时，人们想到了许多双曲线期货。这些期货具有重要的功能，无论是在发展社区，激励投资者还是为AR公司确定优先事项。但是，随着时间的流逝，对该技术的未来和集体期望会发生巨大变化。这项研究分析了两个期货数据集，以了解围绕AR的10年期货，其中一个来自AR会议上多年的参与者观察，另一个来自有关可穿戴技术的媒体数字档案，称为FABRIC。通过比较随着AR在发展周期各个阶段之间变化的10年期未来，这项研究确定了各种话语流形成会议的具体方式，从而形成了对AR的集体未来和期望。