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Recent changes in temperature and precipitation indices in the Southern Carpathians, Romania (1961–2018)
Theoretical and Applied Climatology ( IF 3.4 ) Pub Date : 2021-02-24 , DOI: 10.1007/s00704-021-03560-w
Dana Magdalena Micu , Vlad Alexandru Amihaesei , Narcisa Milian , Sorin Cheval

The Southern Carpathians (Romania) are one of the highest, steepest and most massive sectors of the Carpathian Mountains, with a strong imprint of the Pleistocene glaciation, which are widely affected by a broad spectrum of natural hazards (avalanches, rock wall weathering and landslides, flash floods). This paper focuses on the detection of recent changes in annual temperature and precipitation extremes over the 1961–2018 period based on observational data, discussing their spatial distribution and dependencies (on altitude, latitude and longitude). Trend analysis was applied on a set of 16 indices selected from the core indices recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). The results show a significant warming trend, well reflected by the strong decline of frost days and icing days and a significant increase in absolute maximum temperatures, summer days and warm spell duration. Trends in precipitation extremes are more various, suggesting a climate drying trend, apparently stronger in the areas with a fast rise of maximum temperatures (evidence of coupled warming-drying climate change signal) and an increasing frequency of heavy precipitation events and resulted water amounts, in the areas affected by summer convection intensification. Except TNn with trends slopes revealing a winter nighttime amplification with elevation, high elevations (at above 2000 m) show only slight changes in temperature and precipitation extremes compared to the lower areas, explaining the general lack of elevation dependency of trends. Longitude explains 48 to 54% of trends in heavy precipitation indices. Changes in the large-scale atmospheric circulation (e.g. intensification of westerly circulation, increasing frequency of blocking conditions), cloudiness and summer convection have been identified among the main factors influencing trend behaviour and their spatial distribution.



中文翻译:

罗马尼亚南喀尔巴阡地区温度和降水指数的最新变化(1961–2018年)

南部喀尔巴阡山脉(罗马尼亚)是喀尔巴阡山脉中最高,最陡峭和最庞大的地区之一,在更新世的冰川作用中有着很强的烙印,这受到广泛的自然灾害(崩塌,岩壁风化和山体滑坡)的广泛影响,山洪暴发)。本文着重于根据观测数据检测1961-2018年期间温度和降水极端值的最新变化,并讨论它们的空间分布和相关性(与海拔,纬度和经度有关)。趋势分析应用于从气候变化检测和指数专家团队(ETCCDI)推荐的核心指数中选出的16个指数。结果显示出明显的变暖趋势,霜冻日和结冰日的急剧下降以及绝对最高温度,夏季日和温暖的持续时间的显着增加很好地反映了这一点。极端降水的趋势更加多样,表明气候干燥趋势,在最高温度快速升高的地区(气候变暖和气候变化信号耦合的证据)明显增强,强降水事件和由此导致的水量增加的频率,在夏季对流加剧的地区。除了具有趋势坡度的TNn揭示了冬季夜间海拔升高外,与海拔较低的地区相比,高海拔地区(海拔2000 m以上)仅显示出温度和极端降水的细微变化,这说明了普遍缺乏趋势对海拔的依赖性。经度解释了大降水指数趋势的48%至54%。在影响趋势行为及其空间分布的主要因素中,已经确定了大规模大气环流的变化(例如,西风环流的加剧,阻塞条件的频率增加),阴天和夏季对流。

更新日期:2021-02-25
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