In Latin America, the relationship between income and support for redistribution is weak and variable despite the region's extreme income inequality. This article shows that this condition is rooted in the truncated structure of many Latin American welfare states. Heavy spending on contributory social insurance for formal-sector workers, flat or regressive subsidies, and informal access barriers mean that social spending does far less for the poor in Latin America than it does in advanced industrial economies. Using public opinion data from across Latin America and original survey data from Colombia, the author demonstrates that income is less predictive of attitudes in the countries and social policy areas in which the poor gain less from social expenditures. Social policy exclusion leads the poor to doubt that they will benefit from redistribution, thereby dampening their support for it. The article reverses an assumption in political economy models that welfare exclusion unleashes demands for greater redistribution. Instead, truncation reinforces skepticism about social policy helping the poor. Welfare state reforms to promote social inclusion are essential to strengthen redistributive coalitions.

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期望降低

在拉丁美洲，尽管该地区的收入极度不平等，但收入与对再分配的支持之间的关系却很弱且多变。本文表明，这种情况植根于许多拉丁美洲福利国家的截断结构。正规部门工人缴费型社会保险的巨额支出、平坦或递减的补贴以及非正式的准入障碍，意味着拉丁美洲的社会支出对穷人的作用远低于发达工业经济体的作用。作者利用拉丁美洲各地的舆论数据和哥伦比亚的原始调查数据，证明了在穷人从社会支出中获得较少收益的国家和社会政策领域，收入对态度的预测能力较差。社会政策排斥使穷人怀疑他们是否会从再分配中受益，从而削弱了他们对再分配的支持。这篇文章推翻了政治经济学模型中的一个假设，即福利排斥会引发对更大再分配的需求。相反，截断加强了对帮助穷人的社会政策的怀疑。促进社会包容的福利国家改革对于加强再分配联盟至关重要。