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Models we Can Trust: Toward a Systematic Discipline of (Agent-Based) Model Interpretation and Validation
arXiv - CS - Artificial Intelligence Pub Date : 2021-02-23 , DOI: arxiv-2102.11615
Gabriel Istrate

We advocate the development of a discipline of interacting with and extracting information from models, both mathematical (e.g. game-theoretic ones) and computational (e.g. agent-based models). We outline some directions for the development of a such a discipline: - the development of logical frameworks for the systematic formal specification of stylized facts and social mechanisms in (mathematical and computational) social science. Such frameworks would bring to attention new issues, such as phase transitions, i.e. dramatical changes in the validity of the stylized facts beyond some critical values in parameter space. We argue that such statements are useful for those logical frameworks describing properties of ABM. - the adaptation of tools from the theory of reactive systems (such as bisimulation) to obtain practically relevant notions of two systems "having the same behavior". - the systematic development of an adversarial theory of model perturbations, that investigates the robustness of conclusions derived from models of social behavior to variations in several features of the social dynamics. These may include: activation order, the underlying social network, individual agent behavior.

中文翻译:

我们可以信任的模型:朝着(基于代理的)模型解释和验证的系统学科发展

我们提倡发展一种与数学模型(例如博弈论模型)和计算模型(例如基于代理模型)交互和从模型中提取信息的学科。我们概述了该学科发展的一些方向:-为(数学和计算)社会科学中的程式化事实和社会机制进行系统形式规范的逻辑框架的发展。这样的框架将引起人们的注意,例如相变,即程式化事实的有效性发生戏剧性的变化,超出了参数空间中的一些关键值。我们认为,这种陈述对于描述ABM属性的逻辑框架很有用。-从反应性系统的理论(例如双仿真)中对工具进行调整,以获得“具有相同行为”的两个系统的实际相关概念。-模型摄动对抗理论的系统发展,该理论研究了从社会行为模型得出的结论对社会动力学若干特征变化的鲁棒性。这些可能包括:激活顺序,底层社交网络,个人代理行为。
更新日期:2021-02-24
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