ABSTRACT

The main objective of this study is to assess South Africa’s tax revenue performance. This is achieved by estimating tax capacity and tax effort for the period 1960–2017 through econometric methods. The 2Stage-Least Square results indicate that GDP per capita and inflation have a strong positive and statistically significant impact on revenue mobilisation while population growth, trade openness and agriculture share in GDP have a strong negative and statistically significant impact on revenue mobilisation. Furthermore, we find that South Africa’s tax effort index varies between 0.92 which is below capacity and 1.10 which is above capacity. On average, the tax effort index is 1.00, implying that South Africa performs well above its potential tax capacity. This study therefore cautiously advice against increases in tax rates in the near term as they will discourage economic activity in the form of labour, output and investment. Experiences elsewhere attest that higher tax rates often induce tax avoidance and evasion, creating about their own problems than solutions.

摘要

本研究的主要目的是评估南非的税收表现。这是通过计量经济学方法估计 1960-2017 年期间的税收能力和税收努力来实现的。2Stage-Least Square 结果表明，人均 GDP 和通货膨胀对收入动员有很强的积极和统计上显着的影响，而人口增长、贸易开放和农业在 GDP 中的份额对收入动员有很强的负面影响，并且在统计上有显着影响。此外，我们发现南非的税收努力指数在低于产能的 0.92 和高于产能的 1.10 之间变化。平均而言，税收努力指数为 1.00，这意味着南非的表现远高于其潜在税收能力。因此，本研究谨慎地建议不要在短期内提高税率，因为这会阻碍劳动力、产出和投资等形式的经济活动。其他地方的经验证明，较高的税率往往会导致避税和逃税，造成他们自己的问题而不是解决方案。