This study attempts to examine the dynamic relationships between climate changes, agricultural sustainability and food-water poverty in a panel of MENA countries over the period 1990–2016. A panel co-integration, pooled least squares regression, pooled fixed effects, and pooled random effects models with the Hausman test for model specification are used to relate three proxies for food poverty and two proxies for water poverty to standard weather variables, agriculture productivity indicators, and environmental sustainability variables. The main results of regression analysis indicate that out of the three food poverty models, two food poverty regressions indicate the low agricultural productivity in low- and middle-income countries, while water poverty in terms of access to improved water is found to increase substantially agricultural value added (coefficient is more elastic, i.e. more than the unity). The results further show that high precipitation and temperature, often accompanied by high CO₂ emissions, increase food poverty in terms of food deficit and prevalence of undernourishment, whilst having no significant effect on water poverty. The overall findings conclude that there is a substantial requirement to increase agricultural sustainability in low- and middle-income MENA countries without deteriorating environment and water reserves.

这项研究试图检验1990-2016年间中东和北非国家小组中气候变化，农业可持续性与食物水贫困之间的动态关系。面板协整，集合最小二乘回归，集合固定效应和集合随机效应模型以及针对模型规范的Hausman检验，用于将3个食物贫困指标和2个水贫困指标与标准天气变量，农业生产率指标相关联以及环境可持续性变量。回归分析的主要结果表明，在这三种粮食贫困模型中，有两种粮食贫困回归表明中低收入国家的农业生产率较低，同时，从获得改善的水的角度来看，水资源贫困大大增加了农业增加值（系数更具弹性，即比统一性更大）。结果进一步表明，高的降水和温度，通常伴随着高的CO₂排放，在粮食短缺和食物不足发生率方面增加了粮食贫困，而对水资源贫困没有重大影响。总的结论是，在不降低环境和水储量的情况下，迫切需要在中低收入的中东和北非国家提高农业的可持续性。