The Sun provides the energy required to sustain life on Earth and drive our planet's atmospheric circulation. However, establishing a solid physical connection between solar and tropospheric variability has posed a considerable challenge. The canon of solar variability is derived from the 400 years of observations that demonstrates the waxing and waning number of sunspots over an 11(‐ish) year period. Recent research has demonstrated the significance of the underlying 22 years magnetic polarity cycle in establishing the shorter sunspot cycle. Integral to the manifestation of the latter is the spatiotemporal overlapping and migration of oppositely polarized magnetic bands. We demonstrate the impact of “terminators”—the end of Hale magnetic cycles—on the Sun's radiative output and particulate shielding of our atmosphere through the rapid global reconfiguration of solar magnetism. Using direct observation and proxies of solar activity going back some six decades we can, with high statistical significance, demonstrate a correlation between the occurrence of terminators and the largest swings of Earth's oceanic indices: the transition from El Niño to La Niña states of the central Pacific. This empirical relationship is a potential source of increased predictive skill for the understanding of El Niño climate variations, a high‐stakes societal imperative given that El Niño impacts lives, property, and economic activity around the globe. A forecast of the Sun's global behavior places the next solar cycle termination in mid‐2020; should a major oceanic swing follow, then the challenge becomes: when does correlation become causation and how does the process work?

中文翻译：

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太阳周期终止和相关的对流层变化

太阳提供维持地球生命并推动地球大气循环所需的能量。然而，在太阳和对流层变化之间建立牢固的物理联系提出了巨大的挑战。太阳变率的经典来自400年的观测结果，这些观测结果证明了11（-ish）年期间太阳黑子的起伏趋势。最近的研究表明，在建立更短的太阳黑子周期中，潜在的22年磁极周期的重要性。后者的表现不可或缺的是时空重叠和相反极化的磁带迁移。我们证明了“终结者”（黑尔磁循环的终结）对太阳的影响 通过迅速重新配置全球太阳磁场来辐射辐射并屏蔽我们的大气层。利用对近六十年来太阳活动的直接观测和代理，我们可以高度统计地证明终结者的发生与地球海洋指数最大波动之间的相关性：从厄尔尼诺现象向中部拉尼娜状态的转变太平洋地区。这种经验关系可能是提高对厄尔尼诺气候变化的理解的预测技能的潜在来源，鉴于厄尔尼诺现象影响全球的生命，财产和经济活动，这是一项具有重大社会意义的当务之急。对太阳的全球行为的预测将在2020年中期终止下一个太阳周期。如果出现重大的海洋波动，那么挑战将变为：