Climate change is already affecting the distributions of marine fish, and future change is expected to have a particularly large impact on small islands that are reliant on the sea for much of their income. This study aims to develop an understanding of how climate change may affect the distribution of commercially important tuna in the waters around the United Kingdom’s Overseas Territories in the South Atlantic. The future suitable habitat of southern bluefin, albacore, bigeye, yellowfin and skipjack tunas were modelled under two future climate change scenarios. Of all the tunas, the waters of Tristan da Cunha are the most suitable for southern bluefin, and overall, the environmental conditions will remain so in the future. Tristan da Cunha is not projected to become more suitable for any of the other tuna species in the future. For the other tuna species, Ascension Island and Saint Helena will become more suitable in the future, particularly so for skipjack tuna around Ascension Island, as the temperature and salinity conditions change in these areas. Large marine protected areas have been designated around the territories, with those in Ascension and Tristan da Cunha closed to tuna fishing. Although these areas are small relative to the whole Atlantic, these model projections could be useful in understanding whether this protection will benefit tuna populations into the future, particularly where there is high site fidelity.

气候变化已经在影响海水鱼类的分布，并且未来的变化预计将对依赖大部分收入而依赖海洋的小岛屿产生特别大的影响。这项研究旨在加深对气候变化如何影响英国重要海域在南大西洋的英国海外领地周围水域中分布的理解。在两种未来气候变化情景下，对南部蓝鳍金枪鱼，长鳍金枪鱼，大眼金枪鱼，黄鳍金枪鱼和skip鱼的未来适宜栖息地进行了建模。在所有金枪鱼中，特里斯坦达库尼亚（Tristan da Cunha）的水域最适合南部蓝鳍金枪鱼，总的来说，将来的环境条件将保持不变。预计Tristan da Cunha将来不会变得更适合其他任何金枪鱼品种。对于其他金枪鱼物种，随着温度和盐度条件的变化，将来升天岛和圣赫勒拿岛将变得更加合适，尤其是升天岛周围的skip鱼。已在领土周围划定了大型海洋保护区，而在阿森松和特里斯坦达库尼亚的保护区则禁止金枪鱼捕捞。尽管相对于整个大西洋而言，这些区域很小，但这些模型预测可能有助于理解这种保护措施是否会在未来使金枪鱼种群受益，特别是在高保真度的地方。已在领土周围划定了大型海洋保护区，而在阿森松和特里斯坦达库尼亚的保护区则禁止金枪鱼捕捞。尽管相对于整个大西洋而言，这些区域很小，但这些模型预测可能有助于理解这种保护措施是否会在未来使金枪鱼种群受益，特别是在高保真度的地方。已在领土周围划定了大型海洋保护区，而在阿森松和特里斯坦达库尼亚的保护区则禁止金枪鱼捕捞。尽管相对于整个大西洋而言，这些区域很小，但这些模型预测可能有助于理解这种保护措施是否会在未来使金枪鱼种群受益，特别是在高保真度的地方。