Trajectory and fate modeling of the oil released during the Deepwater Horizon blowout was performed for April to September of 2010 using a variety of input data sets, including combinations of seven hydrodynamic and four wind models, to determine the inputs leading to the best agreement with observations and to evaluate their reliability for quantifying exposure of marine resources to floating and subsurface oil. Remote sensing (satellite imagery) data were used to estimate the amount and distribution of floating oil over time for comparison with the model’s predictions. The model-predicted locations and amounts of shoreline oiling were compared to documentation of stranded oil by shoreline assessment teams. Surface floating oil trajectory and distribution was largely wind driven. However, trajectories varied with the hydrodynamic model used as input, and was closest to observations when using specific implementations of the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model modeled currents that accounted for both offshore and nearshore currents. Shoreline oiling distributions reflected the paths of the surface oil trajectories and were more accurate when westward flows near the Mississippi Delta were simulated. The modeled movements and amounts of oil floating over time were in good agreement with estimates from interpretation of remote sensing data, indicating initial oil droplet distributions and oil transport and fate processes produced oil distribution results reliable for evaluating environmental exposures in the water column and from floating oil at water surface. The model-estimated daily average water surface area affected by floating oil >1.0 g/m² was 6,720 km², within the range of uncertainty for the 11,200 km² estimate based on remote sensing. Modeled shoreline oiling extended over 2,600 km from the Apalachicola Bay area of Florida to Terrebonne Bay area of Louisiana, comparing well to the estimated 2,100 km oiled based on incomplete shoreline surveys.

使用多种输入数据集（包括七个水动力模型和四个风模型的组合）对2010年4月至9月在“深水地平线”井喷期间释放的油的轨迹和命运进行了建模，以确定与观测值最佳吻合的输入并评估其在量化海洋资源在浮油和地下油中的暴露量的可靠性。遥感（卫星图像）数据用于估算随时间推移的浮油量和分布，以便与模型的预测结果进行比较。海岸线评估小组将模型预测的海岸线注油位置和数量与滞留油的文档进行了比较。地表漂浮油的轨迹和分布很大程度上是由风驱动的。然而，轨迹随流体动力学模型作为输入而变化，并且在使用考虑了近海和近海洋流的“混合坐标海洋模型”洋流模型的特定实现时，最接近于观测值。海岸线注油分布反映了地表油轨迹的路径，并且在模拟密西西比河三角洲附近的向西流动时更加准确。随时间变化的模型运动和浮油量与遥感数据解释的估计值非常吻合，表明初始油滴分布以及油的输送和命运过程产生的油分布结果对于评估水柱中的环境暴露和浮油可靠在水面油。受浮油影响的模型估算的每日平均水表面积>²为6,720 km ²，处于基于遥感的11,200 km ²估计值的不确定性范围内。建模的海岸线注油范围从佛罗里达州的Apalachicola湾地区延伸到路易斯安那州的Terrebonne海湾地区超过2,600公里，而根据不完全的海岸线调查估计的注油范围为2,100公里。