This paper empirically examines the determinants of Summer Olympic success during the period 1996-2016. By modifying the panel Tobit estimator using the Mundlak transform, the results find that population size and the host effect are the only statistically significant determinants of Olympic attainment. We also show that participating in front of a home crowd will stimulate athletic performance equally for each gender, but the impact of population differs between the sexes. These findings are confirmed using a hurdle estimator. This relaxes the assumption that the factors determining Olympic success are the same as those that influence the quantity of success.

本文从经验上考察了1996-2016年夏季奥运会成功的决定因素。通过使用Mundlak变换修改面板的Tobit估计量，结果发现人口规模和宿主效应是奥运会成绩唯一具有统计意义的决定因素。我们还表明，在家庭人群中参加比赛对每个性别都会平等地激发运动成绩，但是性别对人口的影响是不同的。使用跨栏估计器可以确认这些发现。这放松了以下假设：决定奥运会成功的因素与影响成功数量的因素相同。