Journal of Water & Climate Change ( IF 2.8 ) Pub Date : 2021-02-01 , DOI: 10.2166/wcc.2020.130 Md. Arfanuzzaman 1 , S. M. Tanvir Hassan 2 , Md. Abu Syed 2
It is very likely that climate change will increase the frequency and intensity of extreme events such as floods, flash floods, storms, heat and cold waves, riverbank erosion, and drought in the river basin of Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region. This could mean detrimental impacts to the poor and marginal people in the lower Teesta basin (LTB) in Bangladesh. Though adaptation involves financial costs, the farmers' practicing adaptation in LTB experience diminished crop loss and damage. This study was aimed at assessing the promising adaptation practices, their economic return, and social welfare in the LTB through an extended cost-benefit analysis. The study suggests that among the adaptations, shallow tube-well (STW) based irrigation practice in both sandy and loamy soil has the highest marginal adaptation cost (MAC) but the lowest benefit-cost ratio (BCR). The deep tube-well (DTW) based irrigation practice generates superior benefits to the farmers compared to the STW based farming due to initial establishment by the government which is very expensive. Maize farming as an alternate and less resource consumptive cropping produces nearly five times higher economic benefits than the costs which can be acknowledged as the most profitable and resilient adaptation option in the LTB. Though MAC is relatively low for the short-duration variety (SDV) rice among the promising adaptations, its economic profitability is 62% lower than that of the maize cultivation. However, having higher BCR the maize cultivation generates US$86 higher welfare to the farmers than the SDV rice which may strengthen the farmer's preference of maize cultivation over the SDV rice. It can be stated with high confidence that strategic adaptation planning, soft credit, technological advancement, and subsidized agricultural inputs will encourage the farmers to carry out adaptation options which may reduce climate-induced loss and damages for the farmers and build socio-economic resilience in the LTB and other similar areas of South Asia.
中文翻译:
应对气候热点的有力发展的有前途的适应措施的成本效益:来自孟加拉国下Teesta盆地的证据
气候变化很有可能会增加极端事件的发生频率和强度,这些极端事件包括洪水,山洪,暴风雨,热浪和冷浪,河岸侵蚀和兴都库什喜马拉雅河(HKH)地区流域的干旱。这可能意味着对孟加拉国下Teesta盆地(LTB)的贫困和边缘人群造成不利影响。尽管适应过程涉及财务成本,但农民在LTB中进行的适应活动减少了作物的损失和损害。这项研究的目的是通过扩展的成本效益分析来评估LTB中有希望的适应实践,其经济回报和社会福利。研究表明,在改编中,在沙质和壤土中,基于浅管井(STW)的灌溉实践的边际适应成本(MAC)最高,但效益成本比(BCR)最低。与基于STW的农业相比,基于深管井(DTW)的灌溉实践为农民带来了更大的收益,这是由于政府最初建立的,这非常昂贵。玉米种植作为一种替代性的,消耗资源较少的种植,产生的经济效益几乎是成本的近五倍,而后者被认为是LTB中最有利可图和最灵活的适应选择。尽管在有前途的改种中,短时品种(SDV)水稻的MAC相对较低,但其经济效益却比玉米栽培的经济效益低62%。然而,具有较高BCR的玉米种植给农民带来的收益比SDV水稻高86美元,这可能会增强农民对SDV水稻的玉米种植偏好。可以高度肯定地说,战略适应计划,软信贷,技术进步和有补贴的农业投入将鼓励农民进行适应方案,这些方案可以减少气候造成的对农民的损失和损害,并建立社会经济适应力。 LTB和南亚其他类似地区。