Precipitation extremes are expected to intensify under climate change with consequent impacts in flooding and ecosystem functioning. Here we use station data and high‐resolution simulations from the WRF convection permitting climate model (∼4 km, 1 h) over the US to assess future changes in hourly precipitation extremes. It is demonstrated that hourly precipitation extremes and storm depths are expected to intensify under climate change and what is now a 20‐year rainfall will become a 7‐year rainfall on average for ∼ 75% of gridpoints over the US. This intensification is mostly expressed as an increase in rainfall tail heaviness. Statistically significant changes in the seasonality and duration of rainfall extremes are also exhibited over ∼ 95% of the domain. Our results suggest more non‐linear future precipitation extremes with shorter spell duration that are distributed more uniformly throughout the year.

中文翻译：

---

气候变暖的季节，强度和持续时间极端气候变化

在气候变化下，极端降水预计将加剧，从而对洪水和生态系统功能产生影响。在这里，我们使用台风数据和来自WRF对流允许气候模型（〜4 km，1 h）的高分辨率模拟来评估美国每小时降水极端值的变化。事实证明，在气候变化的影响下，预计每小时的极端降水和风暴深度会加剧，现在美国的约75％的栅格点现在的20年降水量将平均变为7年降水量。这种加剧主要表现为降雨尾重的增加。极端季节的季节性和持续时间的统计上显着变化也显示在约95％的范围内。