Assessing and modelling the coastal plume dispersion of nuclearized rivers is strategic in case of accidental releases, but taking into account the variation of main hydrodynamic forcings is challenging. This study uses fuzzy c-mean clustering of a 10 years series of discharge and wind speed at the Rhone River estuary (France) in order to explain the variability of its plume. The method allows to classify the data into 6 scenarios of hydrodynamic forcings that were related to different spatial extensions of the plume, as well as to surface currents measured in-situ. These scenarios were used to simulate the extension and dilution of a radioactive release issued from the river. Based on threshold values of the forcings, a decisional tree is proposed to provide a quick decision tool identifying, in real time, which climatological scenario occurs at the river mouth and the potential plume pattern.

在意外释放的情况下，评估和模拟核化河流的沿海羽流扩散是具有战略意义的，但是考虑到主要水动力强迫的变化是具有挑战性的。为了解释其羽流的变异性，本研究使用了罗纳河河口（法国）的10年流量和风速序列的模糊c均值聚类。该方法可以将数据分类为6种流体动力强迫情景，这些情景与羽流的不同空间扩展以及就地测量的地表电流有关。这些场景被用来模拟河流中放射性释放的扩展和稀释。基于强制的阈值，提出了一种决策树，以提供一种实时实时识别的快速决策工具，