Language is thought to be a crucial element behind Pleistocene expansions of Homo sapiens but our understanding of language change over the very long term is still poor. There have been two main approaches to language dynamics in this context. One assumes a continual ebb and flow of local human populations and languages, leading to high levels of ‘patchiness’ in both genes and languages. Another approach argues that long-term equilibrium leads not to patchiness but to areal diffusion and convergence. Both of these approaches assume equilibrium to be the norm. However, research in ecology since the 1970s has found that ecosystems have multiple potential states rather than a single equilibrium point. Under the name of resilience theory, such thinking is being increasingly applied to coupled socio-ecological systems using the concept of the adaptive cycle. This article proposes a model of long-term language change based on the adaptive cycle of resilience theory.

中文翻译：

---

社会生态弹性和语言动态：长期语言变化的适应性循环模型

语言被认为是智人更新世扩张背后的关键因素，但我们对长期语言变化的理解仍然很差。在这种情况下，有两种主要的语言动态方法。一种假设是当地人口和语言的持续潮起潮落，导致基因和语言的高度“不一致性”。另一种方法认为，长期均衡不会导致不完整，而是导致区域扩散和收敛。这两种方法都假设均衡是常态。然而，自 1970 年代以来的生态学研究发现，生态系统具有多种潜在状态，而不是单一的平衡点。在弹性理论的名义下，使用适应性循环的概念，这种想法正越来越多地应用于耦合的社会生态系统。本文基于韧性理论的适应性循环提出了一种长期语言变化的模型。