Although energy systems are well known to lead to positive or negative externalities, one less explored attribute has been a rigorous historical and future looking assessment of energy accidents. In this study, we analyze an extensive dataset of 4,450 energy accidents from 1800 to 2018 across eleven energy systems. Our analysis reveals that these collective energy systems resulted in more than 278,000 human fatalities and approximately $421.3 billion in economic damages. Historically, coal accidents are the most frequent, accounting for almost half of all accidents. In terms of severity, accidents at hydroelectric dams were the most fatal, accounting for 67 percent. In terms of cost, nuclear power accidents are by far the most expensive, accounting for 62 percent of damages. Coupling our data and an econometric model with future projections of energy demand underscores the magnitude of the trends identified: 986,000 to 1.72 million potential energy accident deaths in 2040, as well as almost $1 trillion in damages. This leads to compelling policy implications, especially concerning the need for safety improvements in energy systems such as bioenergy and nuclear power, as well as the need for the IEA and IRENA, among others, to begin to better track and account for energy accident trends. We find that across all accidents, fuel extraction and processing, transmission and distribution, and transportation have the most fatalities, and yet conversion and operation, transmission and distribution, and transportation have the most damages. Moreover, achieving strong climate goals leads to an unacceptably higher risk of accidents and human health and economic consequences. Finally, as its economic development propels increases in energy consumption, Africa will become the future center for energy accident fatalities.

尽管众所周知，能源系统会导致正面或负面的外部影响，但较少探索的属性是对能源事故进行严格的历史和未来展望评估。在这项研究中，我们分析了11个能源系统中从1800年到2018年的4,450起能源事故的广泛数据集。我们的分析表明，这些集体能源系统导致278,000多人丧生，经济损失约为4,213亿美元。从历史上看，煤矿事故是最常见的，几乎占所有事故的一半。就严重程度而言，水电大坝的事故是最致命的，占67％。就成本而言，核电事故是迄今为止最昂贵的事故，占损失的62％。将我们的数据和计量经济模型与能源需求的未来预测相结合，可以凸显出所确定趋势的规模：2040年有986,000至172万潜在的能源事故死亡，以及近1万亿美元的损失。这导致了令人信服的政策含义，尤其是涉及对生物能源和核电等能源系统中安全性改进的需求，以及IEA和IRENA等开始更好地跟踪和解释能源事故趋势的需求。我们发现，在所有事故中，燃料的提取和加工，传输和分配以及运输的死亡人数最多，而转换和运行，传输和分配以及运输的损失最多。而且，实现强大的气候目标会导致意外风险以及对人类健康和经济造成的不可接受的更高风险。最后，随着其经济发展推动能源消耗的增加，非洲将成为未来发生能源事故死亡人数的中心。