We investigate the empirical link between external debt composition and domestic credit cycles. Using quarterly data for 40 countries between 1980 and 2015, we show that two dimensions of external debt composition (ie instrument type and lending/borrowing sector) provide valuable information about the likelihood of domestic credit booms and busts. In particular, we find that a higher share of external bank lending in the form of bonds is associated with a greater likelihood of credit booms. Our results also reveal that credit busts tend to be associated with a lower share of interbank lending and a higher share of lending from banks to non-banks. Additionally, the empirical evidence shows that external debt composition is a robust predictor of domestic credit booms and busts at a wide range of horizons. Thus, the information contained in the composition of external debt can be used to construct a set of “early-warning” indicators, which can help policymakers in their management of credit cycles.

我们研究了外债构成与国内信贷周期之间的经验联系。使用1980年至2015年期间40个国家/地区的季度数据，我们显示，外债构成的两个维度（即工具类型和借贷/借款部门）提供了有关国内信贷繁荣和萧条的可能性的有价值的信息。特别是，我们发现，以债券形式存在的外部银行贷款所占份额较高，与信贷繁荣的可能性更大相关。我们的结果还表明，信贷泡沫破裂往往与银行同业拆借所占份额较低以及银行对非银行的放贷所占份额较高有关。此外，经验证据表明，外债构成可以在广泛的范围内强有力地预测国内信贷的兴衰。因此，