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Multi-decadal trends in Antarctic sea-ice extent driven by ENSO–SAM over the last 2,000 years
Nature Geoscience ( IF 13.566 ) Pub Date : 2021-02-22 , DOI: 10.1038/s41561-021-00697-1
Xavier Crosta; Johan Etourneau; Lisa C. Orme; Quentin Dalaiden; Philippine Campagne; Didier Swingedouw; Hugues Goosse; Guillaume Massé; Arto Miettinen; Robert M. McKay; Robert B. Dunbar; Carlota Escutia; Minoru Ikehara

Antarctic sea ice has paradoxically become more extensive over the past four decades despite a warming climate. The regional expression of this trend has been linked to changes in vertical redistribution of ocean heat and large-scale wind-field shifts. However, the short length of modern observations has hindered attempts to attribute this trend to anthropogenic forcing or natural variability. Here, we present two new decadal-resolution records of sea ice and sea surface temperatures that document pervasive regional climate heterogeneity in Indian Antarctic sea-ice cover over the last 2,000 years. Data assimilation of our marine records in a climate model suggests that the reconstructed dichotomous regional conditions were driven by the multi-decadal variability of the El Niño Southern Oscillation and Southern Annular Mode (SAM). For example, during an El Niño/SAM– combination, the northward sea-ice transport was reduced while heat advection from the subtropics to the Southern Ocean increased, which resulted in reduced sea-ice extent in the Indian sector as sea ice was compacted along the Antarctic coast. Our results therefore indicate that natural variability is large in the Southern Ocean and suggest that it has played a crucial role in the recent sea-ice trends and their decadal variability in this region.



中文翻译:

在过去的2,000年中,由ENSO–SAM驱动的南极海冰范围的十年变化趋势

尽管气候变暖,但在过去的四十年中,南极海冰反而变得更加广泛。这种趋势的区域性表达与海洋热量垂直重新分布的变化和大规模的风场变化有关。但是,现代观测的时间短,阻碍了将这种趋势归因于人为强迫或自然变异的尝试。在这里,我们介绍了两个新的海冰和海表温度年代际分辨率记录,这些记录记录了过去2,000年中印度南极海冰覆盖区普遍存在的区域气候异质性。气候模型中我们的海洋记录的数据同化表明,重建的二分区域条件是由厄尔尼诺南方涛动和南方环状模式(SAM)的多年代际变化驱动的。例如,在厄尔尼诺/ SAM–组合期间,北冰洋运输减少,而从亚热带到南大洋的热平流增加,这导致印度扇形海冰面积减少,因为南极沿海地区的海冰被压缩。因此,我们的结果表明,南大洋的自然变异性很大,并表明它在该地区最近的海冰趋势及其年代际变异中发挥了关键作用。

更新日期:2021-02-22
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