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A process‐based soil erosion model ensemble to assess model uncertainty in climate‐change impact assessments
Land Degradation & Development ( IF 4.7 ) Pub Date : 2021-02-22 , DOI: 10.1002/ldr.3920
Joris P.C. Eekhout 1 , Agustín Millares‐Valenzuela 2 , Alberto Martínez‐Salvador 3 , Rafael García‐Lorenzo 3 , Pedro Pérez‐Cutillas 3 , Carmelo Conesa‐García 3 , Joris Vente 1
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The impact of climate change on future soil loss is commonly assessed with soil erosion models, which are suggested to be an important source of uncertainty. Here, we present a novel soil erosion model ensemble to assess model uncertainty in climate‐change impact assessments. The model ensemble consists of five continuous process‐based soil erosion models that run at a daily time step (i.e., DHSVM, HSPF, INCA, MMF, SHETRAN). The models were implemented in the SPHY hydrological model and simulate detachment by raindrop impact, detachment by runoff, and immediate deposition. The soil erosion model ensemble was applied in a semiarid catchment in the southeast of Spain. We applied three future climate scenarios based on global mean temperature rise (+1.5, +2 and +3°C). Data from two contrasting regional climate models were used to assess how an increase and a decrease in projected extreme precipitation affect model uncertainty. Soil loss is projected to increase (up to 95%) and decrease (up to −30%) under climate change, mostly reflecting the change in extreme precipitation. Model uncertainty is found to increase with increasing slope, extreme precipitation and runoff, which reveals some inherent differences in model assumptions among the five models. Moreover, the model uncertainty increases in all climate change scenarios, independent of the projected change in annual precipitation and extreme precipitation. This stresses the importance to consider model uncertainty through model ensembles of climate, hydrology, and soil erosion in climate‐change impact assessments.

中文翻译:

一个基于过程的土壤侵蚀模型集合,用于评估气候变化影响评估中的模型不确定性

通常使用土壤侵蚀模型来评估气候变化对未来土壤流失的影响,这被认为是不确定性的重要来源。在这里,我们提出了一种新型的土壤侵蚀模型集合,用于评估气候变化影响评估中的模型不确定性。该模型集合由五个连续的,基于过程的土壤侵蚀模型组成,这些模型每天运行一次(即DHSVM,HSPF,INCA,MMF,SHETRAN)。这些模型在SPHY水文模型中实现,并模拟了雨滴撞击引起的脱离,径流引起的脱离和立即沉积。土壤侵蚀模型集合应用于西班牙东南部的半干旱流域。我们基于全球平均气温上升(+ 1.5,+ 2和+ 3°C)应用了三种未来气候情景。来自两个截然不同的区域气候模型的数据被用来评估预计极端降水量的增加和减少如何影响模型的不确定性。在气候变化下,土壤流失预计会增加(高达95%)和减少(高达-30%),这主要反映了极端降水的变化。发现模型不确定性随坡度,极端降水和径流量的增加而增加,这揭示了这五个模型之间模型假设的某些内在差异。此外,在所有气候变化情景中,模型的不确定性都会增加,而与预计的年降水量和极端降水量的变化无关。这强调了在气候变化影响评估中通过气候,水文和土壤侵蚀的模型集成考虑模型不确定性的重要性。
更新日期:2021-04-12
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