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Modelling the dynamics of antimicrobial-resistant typhoid infection with environmental transmission
Applied Mathematics and Computation ( IF 3.472 ) Pub Date : 2021-02-22 , DOI: 10.1016/j.amc.2021.126081
Tsegaye Kebede Irena; Sunita Gakkhar

The emergence of treatment-induced acquired resistance is considered one of the most significant challenges in managing typhoid infection. A deterministic nonlinear mathematical model describing the transmission dynamics of antimicrobial-resistant typhoid infection is developed and analyzed. The basic reproduction number is computed for the model. The condition for the existence of possible equilibria and their stability has been discussed. The sensitivity analysis shows that the direct transmission rates of two strains and the consumption rate of bacteria in environmental transmission strongly impacts the basic reproduction number R0. The parameter p, related to treatment-induced acquired resistance, does not affect R0, but numerical simulations reveal that it enhances the load of resistant strain in a co-existence equilibrium state. Although the resistant strain has lower transmissibility than the sensitive strain, the resistant strain alone can persist in a community due to re-infection. The study suggests that access to safe drinking water combined with improved sanitation and hygiene practices can reduce the emergence and global spread of antimicrobial-resistant S. Typhi strains.



中文翻译:

通过环境传播模拟耐药性伤寒感染的动力学

治疗引起的获得性耐药的出现被认为是处理伤寒感染的最重大挑战之一。建立并分析了描述抗药性伤寒感染传播动力学的确定性非线性数学模型。计算该模型的基本再现次数。讨论了可能平衡存在的条件及其稳定性。敏感性分析表明,两种菌株的直接传播率和环境传播中细菌的消耗率对基本繁殖数有很大影响。[R0。参数p 与治疗引起的获得性耐药有关,不影响 [R0但是数值模拟表明,它在共存的平衡状态下增加了抵抗应变的负荷。尽管抗性菌株的传播能力低于敏感菌株,但由于再次感染,单独的抗性菌株可以在群落中持续存在。该研究表明,获得安全的饮用水以及改善的卫生条件和卫生习惯可以减少耐药性伤寒沙门氏菌菌株的出现和在全球的传播。

更新日期:2021-02-22
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