We develop an emission permits trading model where covered firms can (1) utilize rolling planning horizons to deal with uncertainty and (2) exhibit bounded responsiveness to supply-side control policies. We calibrate the model to reproduce annual market outcomes in the EU ETS over 2008–2018 and show that a rolling finite horizon reconciles the banking dynamics with discount rates implied by futures contracts’ yield curves. It also replicates the price dynamics well compared to a standard infinite horizon, including the new price regime induced by the 2018 market reform. We then use our calibrated model to decompose the impacts of the 2018 reform’s design elements, quantify how they hinge on the firms’ horizon and responsiveness, and highlight important implications for policy design. For instance, when firms utilize rolling horizons, the Market Stability Reserve can improve effectiveness by frontloading abatement efforts and induce lower cumulative emissions compared to an infinite horizon.

我们建立了排放许可证交易模型，在此模型中，被覆盖公司可以（1）利用滚动计划范围来处理不确定性，并且（2）对供应方控制政策表现出有限的响应能力。我们校准了该模型以重现EU ETS在2008-2018年期间的年度市场结果，并显示出有限的滚动视野与期货合约收益率曲线所暗示的折现率协调了银行业的动态变化。与标准无限期相比，它还可以很好地复制价格动态，包括2018年市场改革引发的新价格制度。然后，我们使用经过校准的模型来分解2018年改革的设计元素的影响，量化它们如何影响企业的视野和响应能力，并强调对政策设计的重要意义。例如，当公司利用滚动视野时，