Rainfed farmers are among the most vulnerable farming communities to climate change in Pakistan because of the heavy reliance of crop farming on rain and of farmers’ livelihoods on crop farming. The best and most timely responses against climate change are suitable adaptation measures. Accurately perceiving the risks associated with climate change is an essential factor for planning and then implementing adaptations. Using farm household-level data of 400 rainfed farmers collected through a well-designed and field-tested questionnaire, this study examines the association between various adaptation stages (climate risk perceptions, adaptation planning, and implementation of adaptation) and their determinants using a multivariate probit (MVP) model. The findings indicate that farmers’ perceptions of climatic changes are in line with historical climatic data. Climate risk management (CRM) trainings and digital agriculture extension and communication (DAEC) services (indicators of formal institutional arrangements) show a highly significant impact on all adaptation stages. Input market distance, farmer cooperative meetings (an indicator of informal institutional arrangement), off-farm income, education, and number of male family members are among the other key determinants. A highly significant association between various adaptation stages indicates that accurate climate risk perceptions lead to planning and implementation of adaptations. When risk perceptions are underestimated or lacking, then adaptations do not occur. The results further indicate that the timely availability of reliable information on advanced agricultural inputs, weather parameters, crop farming advisory services, and market information could help rainfed farmers devise sound adaptations to minimize risks associated with climate change. The study recommends the provision of CRM trainings and DAEC services to provide a better understanding and promote sound adaptation planning through the adaptive capacity enhancement of rainfed farming communities for sustainable production and livelihood security.

雨养农民是巴基斯坦最容易受到气候变化影响的农业社区之一，因为农作物严重依赖降雨，农民的生计也依赖农作物。应对气候变化的最佳，最及时的应对措施是适当的适应措施。准确地感知与气候变化有关的风险是规划并实施适应措施的重要因素。使用通过精心设计和现场测试的问卷调查收集的400名雨养农民的农户数据，本研究使用多变量方法研究了各个适应阶段（​​气候风险感知，适应计划和实施适应）之间的关联性概率（MVP）模型。研究结果表明，农民对气候变化的认识与历史气候数据一致。气候风险管理（CRM）培训和数字农业扩展与通信（DAEC）服务（正式机构安排的指标）对所有适应阶段都产生了重大影响。投入的市场距离，农民合作会议（非正式制度安排的指标），非农业收入，教育程度和男性家庭成员的数量是其他关键因素。各个适应阶段之间的高度显着关联表明，准确的气候风险感知可导致适应计划和实施。当风险感知被低估或缺乏时，则不会发生适应。结果进一步表明，及时提供有关先进农业投入物，天气参数，作物耕种咨询服务和市场信息的可靠信息，可以帮助雨育农民设计合理的适应措施，以最大程度地减少与气候变化有关的风险。该研究建议提供CRM培训和DAEC服务，以通过增强雨养农业社区的适应能力来实现可持续生产和生计安全，从而更好地理解并促进合理的适应计划。