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Are Individuals’ stated preferences for electric vehicles (EVs) consistent with real-world EV ownership patterns?
Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment ( IF 7.6 ) Pub Date : 2021-02-20 , DOI: 10.1016/j.trd.2021.102728
Wenjian Jia , T. Donna Chen

Previous studies on factors affecting electric vehicle (EV) adoption mainly rely on individual stated preference surveys or aggregate market share analyses. This paper applies both approaches to study EV adoption patterns in the state of Virginia to compare and contrast findings from the two methods. An individual-level vehicle fuel type choice model is developed based on a 2018 stated preference survey of 837 Virginia drivers. A county-level EV ownership model is developed using Department of Motor Vehicles’ 2012–2016 vehicle registration data. Results show several consistent findings: 1) being male and having higher educational attainment have positive effects on EV adoption; 2) availability of DC fast charging stations is positively associated with EV adoption, particularly for battery electric vehicles (BEVs). However, the age effects are found to be inconsistent between the two study approaches: older individuals state negative preferences for EVs whereas counties with greater share of older populations are associated with more EV registrations. Additionally, the individual vehicle choice model complements the county-level EV ownership analysis by examining the effects of various vehicle-related attributes: 1) model results show positive effects of EV purchase incentives but negligible effects of EV annual use fees on EV preferences; 2) battery range is found to be significant for the utility of BEVs, but not for plug-in hybrid EVs; and 3) EV owners place greater importance on battery range and DC fast charging stations than non-EV owners. The combined analysis confirms several influential factors of EV adoption, and identifies instances when stated preference/interest are not consistent with real-world ownership patterns, which should be explicitly considered in EV policy making.



中文翻译:

个人陈述的对电动汽车(EV)的偏好是否与现实世界中的EV所有权模式一致?

先前关于影响电动汽车(EV)采用的因素的研究主要依靠个人陈述的偏好调查或总体市场份额分析。本文将两种方法都用于研究弗吉尼亚州的电动汽车采用模式,以比较和对比两种方法的发现。基于2018年对837名弗吉尼亚州驾驶员的偏好调查,开发了个人级别车辆燃料类型选择模型。利用机动车部的2012-2016年车辆注册数据,开发了县级电动汽车所有权模型。结果显示出几个一致的发现:1)男性和受过较高的教育程度对电动汽车的采用有积极影响;2)直流快速充电站的可用性与电动汽车的采用正相关,尤其是对于电动汽车(BEV)。然而,两种研究方法之间的年龄影响不一致:年龄较大的人表示对电动汽车的负面偏好,而年龄较大的人口所占比例较高的县与较多的电动汽车登记相关。此外,个人车辆选择模型通过检查各种车辆相关属性的影响来补充县级电动汽车所有权分析:1)模型结果显示电动汽车购买激励的积极影响,但电动汽车年使用费对电动汽车偏好的影响可忽略不计;2)电池范围对于BEV的实用性很重要,但对插电式混合动力EV而言并不重要;3)电动车拥有者比非电动车拥有者更重视电池续航里程和直流快速充电站。综合分析证实了电动汽车采用的几个影响因素,

更新日期:2021-02-21
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