Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to examine the long-run survival of earnings fixated traders. Design/methodology/approach - This paper builds a theoretical model of a competitive securities market where both rational traders and earnings fixated traders receive an informational signal about the asset payoff before any trade occurs. Since earnings fixated traders underestimate the mean and variance of the risky asset payoff, earnings fixated traders is shown to make less expected profits than rational traders. Findings - If traders’ types replicate according to the relative profitability of their trading strategies, then earnings fixated traders will disappear in the long run. The results of this paper provide analytical support to Tinic’s (1990) intuition about the eventual disappearance of earnings fixated traders. Research limitations/implications - In the literature, the underestimation of risk is popularly viewed as the cause of irrational traders being better able to exploit the misvaluations (created by noise traders) than rational traders. Hence, it favors the survival of irrational traders over rational traders. However, this paper disapproves this intuition in the informational environment of the competitive securities market. Practical implications - The market environment plays a crucial role in determining the long-run survival of irrational traders. Originality/value - This paper is the first to present a theoretical result showing that in this informational environment of the competitive securities market, the underestimation of risk by irrational traders does not give them advantage over rational traders in exploiting the misvaluations (created by noise traders) as it does in Callen and Luo (2011) and Hirshleifer and Luo (2001).

中文翻译：

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在信息化环境中固定收益交易者的生存

目的-本文的目的是检验固定收益交易者的长期生存能力。设计/方法/方法-本文建立了竞争性证券市场的理论模型，在该模型中，理性交易者和固定收益的交易者在进行任何交易之前都会收到有关资产收益的信息性信号。由于固定收益交易者低估了风险资产收益的均值和方差，因此，固定收益交易者的预期利润要比理性交易者低。结果-如果交易者的类型根据其交易策略的相对获利能力进行复制，那么从长远来看，固定收益的交易者将消失。本文的结果为Tinic（1990）关于固定收益交易者最终消失的直觉提供了分析支持。研究的局限性/含义-在文献中，风险的低估普遍被认为是非理性交易者比理性交易者更能利用（由噪声交易者造成的）错误估值的原因。因此，相对于理性交易者，它更倾向于非理性交易者的生存。但是，本文不赞成竞争性证券市场信息环境中的这种直觉。实际意义-市场环境在确定非理性交易者的长期生存中起着至关重要的作用。原创性/价值-本文是第一个提出理论结果的研究，表明在竞争性证券市场的这种信息环境下，