This paper evaluates the determinants of the expected returns on higher education among students of Russian universities accounting for the variation of the socio-economic development of Russian regions. Based on the longitudinal study, ‘Trajectories in Education and Careers’, it is shown that the average salary in a region is positively related to the individual estimates of expected salary after graduation, but does not affect the relative returns on higher education, i.e. the expected percentage increase in wages, compared to the salary in the absence of a higher education degree. In general, the results correspond to human capital theory, and confirm the rationality of students’ salary expectations. The expected salary shortly after graduation from university is positively related to the academic achievement expressed in the university entrance exam (the Unified State Exam, USE), full-time study and prior work experience. Male students expect to receive higher salaries compared to female students. Students who study for free, expect lower salaries compared to those students who cover their tuition costs. An indirect influence (through USE results) of school characteristics and parental education on expected salary was found. In addition, we discovered a direct and indirect relationship between family income and expected salaries after university graduation.

中文翻译：

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俄罗斯高等教育预期回报的决定因素：人力资本理论方法

本文评估了考虑俄罗斯地区社会经济发展变化的俄罗斯大学学生高等教育预期回报的决定因素。基于“教育和职业轨迹”的纵向研究表明，一个地区的平均工资与个人对毕业后预期工资的估计呈正相关，但不影响高等教育的相对回报，即与没有高等教育学位的工资相比，工资的预期增长百分比。总的来说，结果符合人力资本理论，证实了学生薪酬期望的合理性。大学毕业后不久的预期薪水与大学入学考试（Unified State Exam，USE）、全日制学习和以前的工作经验中表达的学业成绩呈正相关。与女学生相比，男学生期望获得更高的薪水。与支付学费的学生相比，免费学习的学生期望获得更低的薪水。发现学校特征和父母教育对预期工资的间接影响（通过 USE 结果）。此外，我们还发现了家庭收入与大学毕业后预期工资之间的直接和间接关系。与支付学费的学生相比，预计工资会更低。发现学校特征和父母教育对预期工资的间接影响（通过 USE 结果）。此外，我们还发现了家庭收入与大学毕业后预期工资之间的直接和间接关系。与支付学费的学生相比，预计工资会更低。发现学校特征和父母教育对预期工资的间接影响（通过 USE 结果）。此外，我们还发现了家庭收入与大学毕业后预期工资之间的直接和间接关系。