The study tries to measure the influence of the world oil prices on inflation rates in South Asian countries using monthly data from 1980M1–2018M12. Empirical analysis is carried not only using cointegration and VAR, but also using nonlinear analysis. The estimated results reveal that cointegration holds among oil prices and inflation in South Asian countries. Linear and non-linear causality tests stipulate that oil price Granger causes inflation. The impulse-response functions indicate that global oil prices shock positively affects inflation in South Asian countries and this impact is permanent. The variance decomposition analysis postulates that global oil price shock does not describe any significant changes in inflation rates in short run, but this variation increases in the long run. Non-linear analysis reveals that the effect of global oil price on inflation is asymmetric. The positive oil price shock increases inflation significantly, while the influence of negative oil price shock is not significant.

该研究试图使用1980年1月至2018年12月的月度数据来衡量世界石油价格对南亚国家通货膨胀率的影响。经验分析不仅使用协整和VAR，而且还使用非线性分析。估计结果表明，在南亚国家，油价和通货膨胀之间存在协整关系。线性和非线性因果关系检验规定，油价格兰杰会导致通货膨胀。冲激响应函数表明，全球石油价格冲击对南亚国家的通货膨胀产生积极影响，这种影响是永久性的。方差分解分析假设，全球石油价格冲击在短期内不会描述通货膨胀率的任何重大变化，但从长远来看，这种变化会增加。非线性分析表明，全球石油价格对通货膨胀的影响是不对称的。正面的油价冲击显着增加了通货膨胀，而负面的油价冲击的影响不大。