ABSTRACT

This paper proposes a differing methodology from the Brazilian Electricity Regulatory Agency on the efficiency estimation for the Brazilian electricity distribution sector. Our proposal combines robust state-space models and stochastic frontier analysis to measure the operational cost efficiency in a panel data set from 60 Brazilian electricity distribution utilities. The modeling joins the main literature in energy economics with advanced econometric and statistic techniques in order to estimate the efficiencies. Moreover, the suggested model is able to deal with changes in the inefficiencies across time whilst the Bayesian paradigm – through Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques – facilitates the inference on all unknowns. The method enables a significant degree of flexibility in the resultant efficiencies and a complete photography about the distribution sector.

摘要

本文提出了一种与巴西电力监管机构不同的关于巴西配电部门效率估算的方法。我们的建议结合了稳健的状态空间模型和随机前沿分析，以衡量来自 60 家巴西配电公司的面板数据集的运营成本效率。该模型将能源经济学的主要文献与先进的计量经济学和统计技术结合起来，以估计效率。此外，建议的模型能够处理随时间变化的低效率，而贝叶斯范式——通过马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗技术——促进了对所有未知数的推断。