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Projecting potential impact of COVID-19 on major cereal crops in Senegal and Burkina Faso using crop simulation models
Agricultural Systems ( IF 6.6 ) Pub Date : 2021-02-19 , DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2021.103107
P K Jha 1 , A Araya 1, 2 , Z P Stewart 1, 2 , A Faye 3 , H Traore 4 , B J Middendorf 1 , P V V Prasad 1, 2
Affiliation  

Context

The rapid emergence of COVID-19 could have direct and indirect impacts on food production systems and livelihoods of farmers. From the farming perspective, disruption of critical input availability, supply chains and labor, influence crop management. Disruptions to food systems can affect (a) planting area; and (b) crop yields.

Objectives

To quantify the impacts of COVID-19 on major cereal crop's production and their cascading impact on national economy and related policies.

Methods

We used the calibrated crop simulation model (DSSAT suite) to project the impact of potential changes in planting area and grain yield of four major cereal crops (i.e., rice, maize, sorghum, and millet) in Senegal and Burkina Faso in terms of yield, total production, crop value and contribution to agricultural gross domestic product (GDP). Appropriate data (i.e., weather, soil, crop, and management practices) for the specific agroecological zones were used as an input in the model.

Results and conclusions

The simulated yields for 2020 were then used to estimate crop production at country scale for the matrix of different scenarios of planting area and yield change (−15, −10, −5, 0, +5, +10%). Depending on the scenario, changes in total production of four cereals combined at country levels varied from 1.47 M tons to 2.47 M tons in Senegal and 4.51 M tons to 7.52 M tons in Burkina Faso. The economic value of all four cereals under different scenarios ranged from $771 Million (M) to $1292 M in Senegal and from $1251 M to $2098 M in Burkina Faso. These estimated total crop values under different scenarios were compared with total agricultural GDP of the country (in 2019 terms which was $3995 M in Senegal and $3957 M in Burkina Faso) to assess the economic impact of the pandemic on major cereal grain production. Based on the scenarios, the impact on total agricultural GDP can change −7% to +6% in Senegal and − 8% to +9% in Burkina Faso.

Significance

Results obtained from this modeling exercise will be valuable to policymakers and end-to-end value chain practitioners to prepare and develop appropriate policies to cope or manage the impact of COVID-19 on food systems.



中文翻译:

使用作物模拟模型预测 COVID-19 对塞内加尔和布基纳法索主要谷类作物的潜在影响

语境

COVID-19 的迅速出现可能对粮食生产系统和农民的生计产生直接和间接影响。从农业的角度来看,关键投入可用性、供应链和劳动力的中断会影响作物管理。粮食系统中断会影响 (a) 种植面积;(b) 作物产量。

目标

量化 COVID-19 对主要谷类作物生产的影响及其对国民经济和相关政策的连锁影响。

方法

我们使用校准后的作物模拟模型(DSSAT 套件)预测塞内加尔和布基纳法索四种主要谷类作物(即水稻、玉米、高粱和小米)种植面积和粮食产量潜在变化对产量的影响、总产量、作物价值和对农业国内生产总值 (GDP) 的贡献。特定农业生态区的适当数据(即天气、土壤、作物和管理实践)被用作模型的输入。

结果和结论

然后,使用 2020 年的模拟单产估算不同种植面积和单产变化情景矩阵(-15、-10、-5、0、+5、+10%)在国家范围内的作物产量。根据情景,四种谷物在国家层面的总产量变化在塞内加尔从 147 万吨到 247 万吨不等,在布基纳法索从 451 万吨到 752 万吨不等。在不同情景下,所有四种谷物的经济价值在塞内加尔从 7.71 亿美元 (M) 到 12.92 亿美元不等,在布基纳法索从 12.51 亿美元到 20.98 亿美元不等。将不同情景下的这些估算作物总价值与该国的农业 GDP 总值(按 2019 年计算,塞内加尔为 39.95 亿美元,布基纳法索为 39.57 亿美元)进行比较,以评估大流行病对主要谷物生产的经济影响。根据场景,

意义

从该建模练习中获得的结果对于决策者和端到端价值链从业者准备和制定适当的政策来应对或管理 COVID-19 对粮食系统的影响将很有价值。

更新日期:2021-02-19
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