Probabilistic health risk assessment has widely been used for more realistic risk analysis of contaminants. However, the existing probabilistic modeling process may be unable to reflect the actual health risks comprehensively. In the present study, the Monte Carlo simulation was employed to assess the probabilistic health risks of exposing to arsenic (As) and cadmium (Cd) in groundwater through ingestion and dermal contact pathways. To systematically evaluate the actual health risks of residents, two scenarios of the probabilistic health risk assessment were proposed: (1) fixed exposure parameters, whereas uncertain metal concentrations, and (2) uncertain exposure parameters and metal concentrations. The results indicated that the mean hazard index (HI) for local residents was mostly accepted (HI < 1), while the non-cancer risk of infants at the 95th percentile under scenario 2 (HI = 1.42) exceeded the safe level of 1, signifying the potential non-cancer risk on infants. Meanwhile, the average total cancer risk (TCR) values were several times greater than the acceptable limit of 1E−06 for all the age groups under both scenarios 1 and 2, reflecting the unacceptable cancer risk. Moreover, sensitivity analysis identified the exposure duration (ED) and concentration factor (C_W) were the most relevant parameters that affect the health risk. Overall, the results of this study will be useful for the policy makers in comprehensively understanding the actual health risks of the heavy metal(loids) contamination in groundwater on receptors, as well as setting up suitable groundwater management strategies to guarantee safe water supply and to maintain health for local residents.

概率健康风险评估已广泛用于污染物的更现实风险分析。但是，现有的概率建模过程可能无法全面反映实际的健康风险。在本研究中，采用蒙特卡洛模拟法通过摄入和皮肤接触途径评估暴露于地下水中砷（As）和镉（Cd）的概率健康风险。为了系统地评估居民的实际健康风险，提出了两种概率健康风险评估方案：（1）固定的暴露参数，而金属浓度不确定，（2）暴露参数和金属浓度不确定。结果表明，当地居民的平均危害指数（HI）被普遍接受（HI <1），而情景2（HI = 1.42）下处于95％百分位数的婴儿的非癌症风险超过了安全水平1，表明婴儿的潜在非癌症风险。同时，在情景1和情景2下，所有年龄组的平均总癌症风险（TCR）值比1E-06的可接受极限高出几倍，反映出不可接受的癌症风险。此外，敏感性分析还确定了暴露时间（ED）和浓度因子（C _W）是影响健康风险的最相关参数。总体而言，这项研究的结果对于决策者全面了解地下水对受体的重金属（胶体）污染的实际健康风险，以及制定适当的地下水管理策略以确保安全供水和维护当地居民的健康。