All previous studies that have assessed the J-curve phenomenon for Pakistan have relied upon methods that assume that the adjustment of the exchange rate follows a linear path. In this paper, we consider the trade balance of 41 industries that trade between Pakistan and one of its major partners, the US, and extend the literature by assuming that the exchange rate adjusts in a nonlinear manner. When we estimated a linear ARDL model for each industry, we found support for the J-curve only in 10 industries. However, when we estimated a nonlinear ARDL model, we found support for the asymmetric J-curve in 19 industries. In 8 industries, the support was due to favorable effects of rupee depreciation, and in 11 industries, it was due to unfavorable effects of rupee appreciation.

中文翻译：

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巴基斯坦和美国之间商品贸易中的不对称J曲线：来自41个行业的证据

以前所有评估巴基斯坦的J曲线现象的研究都依赖于假设汇率调整遵循线性路径的方法。在本文中，我们考虑了41个巴基斯坦与其主要合作伙伴之一美国之间进行贸易的行业的贸易平衡，并通过假设汇率以非线性方式进行调整来扩展文献。当我们估计每个行业的线性ARDL模型时，我们发现仅10个行业支持J曲线。但是，当我们估计非线性ARDL模型时，我们发现19个行业支持非对称J曲线。在8个行业中，支持是由于卢比贬值的有利影响，而在11个行业中，则是由于卢比升值的不利影响。