Summary The Covid‐19 pandemic has highlighted vulnerabilities in the agri‐food system and wider society. The elderly, in particular, have been overrepresented in intensive care units. The resulting economic crisis and accelerating geopolitical shifts will change the agri‐food system, but it is unclear how this will play out in detail. Two factors are important to consider: will societal priorities change and will the state become more interventionist? We examine these uncertainties via four scenarios from a Dutch perspective. ‘Business as usual’ is realistic if the crises are short and manageable. ‘Government Control’ is more state interventionist, after several decades of neo‐liberalism, with a greater focus on the economy and employment as the agri‐food system is confronted with a long recession. ‘Regional Communities’ is where there is a long period of echo‐pandemics, in which a flourishing community spirit, the attention to nature and a healthy living environment with healthy food are permanent and short supply chains and multifunctional agriculture gain ground. In ‘Green High‐Tech Transformation’, the most extreme scenario, the state and technical innovation take on a much larger role in society and our views on our lifestyle change. These trends reinforce each other and the government is tasked with creating a new economy. The scenarios are not predictions but can be used to structure thought and discussion on the way forward.

中文翻译：

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Covid-19 将改变农业食品系统——但如何改变？

总结 Covid-19 大流行凸显了农业食品系统和更广泛社会的脆弱性。特别是老年人在重症监护病房中的人数过多。由此产生的经济危机和加速的地缘政治变化将改变农业食品系统，但目前尚不清楚这将如何详细发挥作用。需要考虑两个重要因素：社会优先事项是否会发生变化，国家是否会变得更加干预？我们从荷兰的角度通过四种情景来研究这些不确定性。如果危机是短暂且可控的，那么“一切照旧”是现实的。在经历了几十年的新自由主义之后，“政府控制”更倾向于国家干预，因为农业食品系统面临长期衰退，因此更加关注经济和就业。“区域社区”是长期回响大流行的地方，其中蓬勃发展的社区精神、对自然的关注和健康的生活环境与健康的食物是永久的，供应链较短，多功能农业得到了发展。在“绿色高科技转型”这个最极端的场景中，国家和技术创新在社会和我们对生活方式改变的看法中扮演着更大的角色。这些趋势相互加强，政府的任务是创造新经济。这些情景不是预测，而是可用于构建对前进道路的思考和讨论。对自然的关注和健康的生活环境以及健康的食物是永久性的短供应链和多功能农业的发展。在“绿色高科技转型”这个最极端的场景中，国家和技术创新在社会和我们对生活方式改变的看法中扮演着更大的角色。这些趋势相互加强，政府的任务是创造新经济。这些情景不是预测，而是可用于构建对前进道路的思考和讨论。对自然的关注和健康的生活环境以及健康的食物是永久性的短供应链和多功能农业的发展。在“绿色高科技转型”这个最极端的场景中，国家和技术创新在社会和我们对生活方式改变的看法中扮演着更大的角色。这些趋势相互加强，政府的任务是创造新经济。这些情景不是预测，而是可用于构建对前进道路的思考和讨论。