This study investigates whether the likelihood of deal success/failure in merger transactions is influenced by the underlying characteristics which tend to affect acquirers’ shareholder returns. These characteristics include the method of payment (cash versus stock), target status (listed versus non-listed targets), diversification (domestic versus cross-border and industry-wide deals), and acquirers’ prior bidding experience. We also investigate whether announced deals reflect an expectation about the likelihood of deal completion. The findings from event study confirm that market reaction is indifferent to whether the announced deals are likely to be successfully completed or not, consistent with the efficient markets hypothesis. However, the results from probit regressions confirm that the aforementioned deal characteristics, as well as certain firm and country level factors, influence the likelihood of whether previously announced deals are subsequently completed or cancelled. JEL Classification: G34, G14

中文翻译：

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并购交易失败的可能性

这项研究调查了合并交易中交易成功/失败的可能性是否受到倾向于影响收购方股东收益的潜在特征的影响。这些特征包括付款方式（现金对股票），目标状态（上市对非上市目标），多元化（国内对跨境和整个行业的交易）以及收购方先前的投标经验。我们还调查已宣布的交易是否反映了对交易完成可能性的期望。事件研究的结果证实，与有效市场假说相一致，市场对已宣布交易是否可能成功完成无关紧要。但是，概率回归的结果证实了上述交易特征，以及某些公司和国家/地区层面的因素，都会影响先前宣布的交易随后完成或取消的可能性。JEL分类：G34，G14