In this paper, we consider the feasibility of constructing online sentiment indices, using large amounts of media data, as an alternative to the conventional survey method used to create the consumer confidence index in South Africa. A clustering framework is adopted to provide an indication of possible candidate sentiment indices constructed from a combination of different text sources and dictionaries that best mimic the traditional survey‐based consumer confidence index from the South African Bureau for Economic Research (BER). The results conclude that it is possible to create an index using sentiment analysis using online editorial data that does resemble the BER’s consumer confidence index. The different media‐based sentiment indices (MSI) show a significant level of correlation and co‐movement with the BER’s CCI. Impulse responses and cross‐correlation functions indicate that the MSI could potentially lead the survey‐based method up to two quarters. Furthermore, Granger‐causality tests show that the media‐based indices are good predictors of future consumer confidence index values. The results provide motivation for further study on the use of sentiment‐based techniques and online media data sources to track consumer confidence within an emerging market such as South Africa.

中文翻译：

---

基于媒体的情绪指数是衡量消费者信心的另一种方法

在本文中，我们考虑了使用大量媒体数据构建在线情绪指数的可行性，以代替用于创建南非消费者信心指数的传统调查方法。采用聚类框架来指示可能的候选情绪指数，该指数由不同的文本来源和字典组成，最能模仿南非经济研究局（BER）基于传统调查的消费者信心指数。结果得出结论，可以使用与BER的消费者信心指数类似的在线社论数据，通过情感分析来创建指数。不同的基于媒体的情感指数（MSI）与BER的CCI表现出显着的相关性和共通性。脉冲响应和互相关函数表明，MSI可能将基于调查的方法领先多达四分之二。此外，格兰杰因果关系检验表明，基于媒体的指数是未来消费者信心指数值的良好预测指标。这些结果为进一步研究使用基于情感的技术和在线媒体数据源以跟踪南非等新兴市场中的消费者信心提供了动力。