In this paper, we use daily data from October 2011 to May 2019 to estimate the monthly realized correlation between stock returns of the United States (US) and Bitcoin returns. Then, we relate the realized correlation with a news-based measure of the growth of trade uncertainty for the US. Our results show that the realized correlation is negatively impacted by increases in trade uncertainty, suggesting that Bitcoin can act as a hedge relative to the US stock market in the wake of heightened trade policy-related uncertainties, and can provide diversification benefits for investors.

中文翻译：

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交易不确定性和比特币的对冲能力

在本文中，我们使用2011年10月至2019年5月的每日数据来估算美国股票收益和比特币收益之间的月实现相关性。然后，我们将已实现的相关性与基于新闻的美国贸易不确定性增长的度量相关联。我们的结果表明，已实现的相关性受到贸易不确定性增加的负面影响，这表明在与贸易政策相关的不确定性加剧之后，比特币可以充当相对于美国股市的对冲，并可以为投资者提供多元化的收益。