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The impact of Syrian refugees on natives’ labor market outcomes in Turkey: evidence from a quasi-experimental design
IZA Journal of Labor Policy Pub Date : 2017-06-13 , DOI: 10.1186/s40173-017-0082-4
Evren Ceritoglu , H. Burcu Gurcihan Yunculer , Huzeyfe Torun , Semih Tumen

Civil conflict in Syria, started in March 2011, led to a massive wave of forced immigration from Northern Syria to the Southeastern regions of Turkey, which later had serious economic/political repercussions on the MENA region and most of Europe. This paper exploits this natural experiment to estimate the impact of Syrian refugees on the labor market outcomes of natives in Turkey. Using a difference-in-differences strategy, we find that immigration has considerably affected the employment outcomes of natives, while its impact on wage outcomes has been negligible. We document notable employment losses among informal workers as a consequence of refugee inflows. Formal employment increased slightly potentially due to increased social services in the region. The majority of those who lost their informal jobs have either left the labor force or remained unemployed. Formal employment and unemployment rates have increased, while labor force participation, informal employment, and job finding rates have declined among natives. Disadvantaged groups, i.e., women, younger workers, and less-educated workers, have been affected the worst. The prevalence of informal employment in the Turkish labor markets has amplified the negative impact of Syrian refugee inflows on natives’ labor market outcomes. Overall, the impact of Syrian refugee inflows on the Turkish labor markets has been limited, which suggests that the potential costs on the European and other affected labor markets might also be limited.

中文翻译:

叙利亚难民对土耳其当地劳动力市场成果的影响:准实验设计的证据

叙利亚的内战始于2011年3月,引发了从叙利亚北部到土耳其东南部地区的大规模移民浪潮,后来又对中东和北非地区和欧洲大部分地区产生了严重的经济/政治影响。本文利用这一自然实验来估计叙利亚难民对土耳其当地人的劳动力市场结果的影响。使用差异差异策略,我们发现移民对当地人的就业成果产生了很大影响,而对工资成果的影响却可以忽略不计。我们记录了由于难民涌入而在非正式工人中造成的显着就业损失。由于该地区社会服务的增加,正式就业可能会略有增加。失去非正式工作的大多数人要么离开了劳动力队伍,要么失业。正式就业和失业率增加了,而土著人民的劳动力参与,非正式就业和就业率却下降了。妇女,年轻工人和文化程度较低的弱势群体受到的影响最严重。土耳其劳动力市场上的非正式就业盛行,加剧了叙利亚难民涌入对当地劳动力市场成果的负面影响。总体而言,叙利亚难民流入对土耳其劳动力市场的影响是有限的,这表明欧洲和其他受影响的劳动力市场的潜在成本也可能受到限制。非正式就业,当地人的就业率下降。妇女,年轻工人和文化程度较低的弱势群体受到的影响最严重。土耳其劳动力市场上的非正式就业盛行,加剧了叙利亚难民涌入对当地劳动力市场成果的负面影响。总体而言,叙利亚难民流入对土耳其劳动力市场的影响是有限的,这表明欧洲和其他受影响的劳动力市场的潜在成本也可能受到限制。非正式就业,当地人的就业率下降。妇女,年轻工人和文化程度较低的弱势群体受到的影响最严重。土耳其劳动力市场上的非正式就业盛行,加剧了叙利亚难民涌入对当地劳动力市场成果的负面影响。总体而言,叙利亚难民流入对土耳其劳动力市场的影响是有限的,这表明欧洲和其他受影响的劳动力市场的潜在成本也可能受到限制。土耳其劳动力市场上的非正式就业盛行,加剧了叙利亚难民涌入对当地劳动力市场成果的负面影响。总体而言,叙利亚难民流入对土耳其劳动力市场的影响是有限的,这表明欧洲和其他受影响的劳动力市场的潜在成本也可能受到限制。土耳其劳动力市场上的非正式就业盛行,加剧了叙利亚难民涌入对当地劳动力市场成果的负面影响。总体而言,叙利亚难民流入对土耳其劳动力市场的影响是有限的,这表明欧洲和其他受影响的劳动力市场的潜在成本也可能受到限制。
更新日期:2017-06-13
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