Using an estimated DSGE model with monetary and fiscal policy interactions and allowing for equilibrium indeterminacy, we find that a passive monetary and passive fiscal policy regime prevailed in the pre-Volcker period. This gave rise to self-fulfilling beliefs and unconventional transmission mechanisms of policy shifts: unanticipated increases in interest rates increased inflation and output, while unanticipated increases in lump-sum taxes decreased inflation and output. We show that had the monetary policy regime of the post-Volcker era been in place pre-Volcker, inflation volatility would have been lower by 25% and the rise of inflation in the 1970s would not have occurred.

中文翻译：

---

政策体制，政策转变和美国经济周期

使用带有货币和财政政策相互作用的估计DSGE模型，并考虑到均衡不确定性，我们发现在沃尔克之前的时期盛行一种被动的货币和被动财政政策体制。这产生了自我实现的信念和非常规的政策转移传导机制：意料之外的利率上升增加了通货膨胀和产出，而意料不到的一次性税收增加则减少了通货膨胀和产出。我们证明，如果后沃尔克时代之前的货币政策制度在沃尔克时代之前就位，通货膨胀率的波动性将降低25％，并且1970年代通货膨胀率不会上升。