We consider the revision properties of Federal Reserve Board staff estimates of the output gap after the mid-1990s and examine the usefulness of these estimates for inflation forecasting. Over this period, we find that the Federal Reserve's output gap is more reliably estimated in real time than previous studies have documented for earlier periods and alternative estimation techniques. In contrast to previous work, we also find no deterioration in forecast performance when inflation projections are conditioned on real-time rather than on final estimates of the output gap.

中文翻译：

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美联储产出缺口的实时属性

我们考虑了1990年代中期以来美联储工作人员对产出缺口的估计值的修订属性，并研究了这些估计值对通胀预测的有用性。在此期间，我们发现美联储的产出缺口可以实时可靠地估算，这要比以前的研究报告所记录的早期时期和替代估算技术更为可靠。与以前的工作相反，当通胀预测以实时为基础，而不是以产出缺口的最终估计为基础时，我们也不会发现预测绩效的恶化。