Firmly anchored inflation expectations are widely viewed as playing a central role for the conduct of monetary policy. This paper presents estimates of trend inflation, based on information contained in monthly data on realized inflation, survey expectations, and the term structure of interest rates. In order to assess whether inflation expectations are anchored, a timevarying volatility of trend shocks is estimated as well. While there is some commonality in inflation- and survey-based estimates of trend inflation, yield-based trend estimates embed a highly persistent component orthogonal to trend inflation. Trimmed-mean inflation rates and survey forecasts are most indicative of trend inflation.

中文翻译：

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衡量趋势通货膨胀的水平和不确定性

人们普遍认为，稳固的通胀预期在货币政策实施中起着核心作用。本文基于有关实际通货膨胀，调查预期和利率期限结构的每月数据中的信息，提供了趋势通货膨胀的估计。为了评估通胀预期是否稳定，还估算了趋势冲击随时间变化的波动性。尽管基于通胀和基于调查的趋势通胀估算存在一些共性，但基于收益率的趋势估算嵌入了与趋势通胀正交的高度持久性成分。调整后的平均通胀率和调查预测最能表明趋势通胀。