Using U.S. Census data for 1990 to 2000, we estimate effects of NAFTAon U.S.wages.We look for effects of the agreement by industry and by geography, measuring each industry's vulnerability to Mexican imports and each locality's dependence on vulnerable industries. We find evidence of both effects, dramatically lowering wage growth for blue-collar workers in the most affected industries and localities (even for service-sector workers in affected localities, whose jobs do not compete with imports). These distributional effects are much larger than aggregate welfare effects estimated by other authors.

中文翻译：

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寻找北美自由贸易协定对当地劳动力市场的影响

利用1990年至2000年的美国人口普查数据，我们估算了NAFTA对美国工资的影响，我们按行业和地理位置来寻找该协议的效果，衡量每个行业对墨西哥进口产品的脆弱性以及每个地区对脆弱行业的依赖性。我们发现了这两种效果的证据，这极大地降低了受影响最严重的行业和地区的蓝领工人的工资增长（即使是受影响地区的服务业工人，其工作也无法与进口竞争）。这些分布效应远大于其他作者估计的总体福利效应。