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Title Professional Wargaming: A Flawed but Useful Tool
Simulation & Gaming Pub Date : 2020-04-17 , DOI: 10.1177/1046878120901852
John Curry 1
Affiliation  

Rationale for the Article. Professional wargames have long been an integral part of the tool set used by the military. The literature includes many examples of wargames that have been successful in terms of training, military education, procurement, operational analysis and planning for war. However, retrospective examination demonstrates that many of these professional wargames also had major errors in them and by implication current games about future confrontations are similarly flawed. Nevertheless, the academic evidence is clear that such games are still invaluable tools. Methodology. Ten years of research into the development of wargames undertaken by the History of Wargaming Project has analysed and made generally available more professional wargames than ever before. Retrospective examination of a sample of these declassified games, from the British War Office Rules (1896) to more recent games about the Ukraine, shows significant errors. Value. Demonstrating that professional games had errors in the past opens challenges the overconfidence in the predictive capacity of games. It also raises the possibility for future research to identify game design bias and to develop better games in the future. Understanding the value of better games, even with their inherent issues, raise the possibility of better preparing decision makers for the future. Notes. The words wargame and game are used interchangeably in this article. Whilst the techniques used in professional gaming evolved from modelling the battlefield, modern professional gaming is increasingly focussed on other situations that are not war, such as state level confrontations, trade wars, politics, cyber conflict, banking crisis etc. Using the term wargame seems inappropriate when for example, gaming a shipping dispute. All the games referred to this article, unless otherwise noted, are professional wargames, used by military, government, public sector bodies and other parties directly involved in real world issues. The prefix professional has been omitted for brevity in most places.

中文翻译:

标题专业兵棋推演:有缺陷但有用的工具

文章的基本原理。长期以来,专业兵棋推演一直是军队使用的工具集不可或缺的一部分。文献包括许多在训练、军事教育、采购、作战分析和战争规划方面取得成功的兵棋例子。然而,回顾性研究表明,许多这些专业兵棋推演也存在重大错误,这意味着当前关于未来对抗的游戏也存在类似缺陷。尽管如此,学术证据清楚地表明,此类游戏仍然是无价的工具。方法。兵棋推演历史项目对兵棋发展进行了十年的研究,分析并普遍提供了比以往任何时候都更专业的兵棋推演。对这些解密游戏的样本进行回顾性检查,从英国陆军部规则(1896 年)到最近关于乌克兰的游戏,都显示出重大错误。价值。证明职业比赛过去曾有过错误,这对人们对比赛预测能力的过度自信提出了挑战。它还为未来研究确定游戏设计偏差并在未来开发更好的游戏提供了可能性。了解更好游戏的价值,即使存在固有问题,也可以提高决策者更好地为未来做好准备的可能性。笔记。在本文中,战争游戏和游戏这两个词可以互换使用。虽然职业游戏中使用的技术是从战场建模演变而来的,但现代职业游戏越来越关注非战争的其他情况,例如国家级对抗、贸易战、政治、网络冲突、银行危机等。例如,在博弈航运纠纷时,使用“兵棋推演”一词似乎不合适。本文中提及的所有游戏,除非另有说明,均为专业兵棋推演,供军队、政府、公共部门机构和其他直接参与现实世界问题的各方使用。为简洁起见,大多数地方都省略了前缀专业。
更新日期:2020-04-17
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