Actuarial scales provide a relatively objective and reliable assessment of individuals’ risk of recidivism. Recent research has explored how graphs can improve quantitative risk communication. We tested whether graphs can improve understanding and perception of sexual violence risk when matched with risk metric. Participants (N = 676) were recruited from Amazon’s MTurk platform and read a brief description of a man convicted of a sexual offense, including results of a fictional sexual recidivism risk scale. In Study 1, absolute risk of recidivism enabled participants to distinguish between individuals with relatively high and low risk of sexual recidivism. In Study 2, this distinction was enhanced by adding a graph, especially when percentiles were communicated. Risk ratios increased perceived risk. Objective numeracy increased understanding and reduced perceived risk. We recommend that risk communication assumes limited statistical numeracy, and further research with practitioners to test the effect of graphs and risk metrics on forensic/judicial decisions.

精算量表对个人再犯的风险提供了相对客观和可靠的评估。最近的研究探索了图表如何改善定量风险沟通。我们测试了图表在与风险指标相匹配时是否可以提高对性暴力风险的理解和感知。参与者 ( N= 676) 是从亚马逊的 MTurk 平台招募的，并阅读了一名被判犯有性犯罪的男子的简要描述，包括虚构的性再犯风险量表的结果。在研究 1 中，再犯的绝对风险使参与者能够区分性再犯风险相对高和低的个体。在研究 2 中，通过添加图表增强了这种区别，尤其是在传达百分位数时。风险比率增加了感知风险。客观计算增加了理解并降低了感知风险。我们建议风险沟通假设统计数字有限，并与从业者进一步研究以测试图表和风险指标对法医/司法决定的影响。