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How Does Public Debt Affect the Indian Macroeconomy? A Structural VAR Approach
Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research Pub Date : 2020-07-31 , DOI: 10.1177/0973801020920092
Ranjan Kumar Mohanty 1 , Sidheswar Panda 2
Affiliation  

The study investigates the macroeconomic effects of public debt in India during 1980–2017 using a structural vector autoregression framework. The objective is to examine the impact of public debt on the interest rate, investment, inflation and economic growth in India. The results of the impulse response functions show that public debt has an adverse impact on economic growth but a positive impact on the long-term interest rate in the short run and a mixed effect (both negative and positive) on investment and inflation. We also find that domestic debt has a more adverse impact on the economy than external debt. The estimated variance decomposition analysis finds that much of the variation in selected macro variables are explained by public debt and growth in India. This study suggests that public debt especially domestic debt should be controlled and channelled productively to have a favourable impact on the economy.

JEL Classification: H63, O40, C40



中文翻译:

公共债务如何影响印度的宏观经济?结构VAR方法

该研究使用结构向量自回归框架调查了1980-2017年印度公共债务的宏观经济影响。目的是研究公共债务对印度的利率,投资,通货膨胀和经济增长的影响。冲激响应函数的结果表明,公共债务在短期内对经济增长产生不利影响,但对长期利率产生积极影响,对投资和通货膨胀的影响(消极和积极的混合)。我们还发现,国内债务比外部债务对经济的不利影响更大。估计方差分解分析发现,选定的宏观变量中的许多变化都由印度的公共债务和增长来解释。

JEL分类:H63,O40,C40

更新日期:2020-07-31
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