The Earth's climate is rapidly changing and some of the most drastic changes can be seen in the Arctic, where sea ice extent has diminished considerably in recent years. As the Arctic climate continues to change, gathering in situ sea ice measurements is increasingly important for understanding the complex evolution of the Arctic ice pack. To date, observations of ice stresses in the Arctic have been spatially and temporally sparse. We propose a measurement framework that would instrument existing sea ice buoys with strain gauges. This measurement framework uses a Bayesian inference approach to infer ice loads acting on the buoy from a set of strain gauge measurements. To test our framework, strain measurements were collected from an experiment where a buoy was frozen into ice that was subsequently compressed to simulate convergent sea ice conditions. A linear elastic finite element model was used to describe the response of the deformable buoy to mechanical loading, allowing us to link the observed strain on the buoy interior to the applied load on the buoy exterior. The approach presented in this paper presents an instrumentation framework that could use existing buoy platforms as in situ sensors of internal stresses in the ice pack.

中文翻译：

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贝叶斯推断海冰负荷的方法

地球的气候在迅速变化，北极地区的变化最为明显，近年来，海冰面积已大大减少。随着北极气候的不断变化，就地收集海冰数据对于了解北极冰袋的复杂演变越来越重要。迄今为止，对北极冰应力的观测在空间和时间上都是稀疏的。我们提出了一种测量框架，该框架将使用应变仪对现有的海冰浮标进行测量。该测量框架使用贝叶斯推断方法从一组应变仪测量值推断作用在浮标上的冰负荷。为了测试我们的框架，从一个实验中收集应变测量值，在该实验中，将浮标冷冻到冰中，然后将其压缩以模拟会聚的海冰状况。线性弹性有限元模型用于描述可变形浮标对机械载荷的响应，从而使我们能够将在浮标内部观察到的应变与浮标外部施加的载荷联系起来。本文介绍的方法提出了一种仪器框架，可以使用现有的浮标平台作为冰袋内部应力的原位传感器。