Abstract

The output gap measured as the percentage deviation of actual output from its potential level is an indicator of an economy’s achievement. Output gap has been an important concept used for forming of policies. In this study, we estimated the potential output and output gap, established some of its macro-economic determinants for the Ethiopian economy. By using yearly data spanning from 1990 to 2018, the study estimated the potential output and output gap using HP filtering, and production function approaches. Accordingly, both approaches indicated that the output gap has been fluctuating over the study period—indicating the actual output inconsistently and frequently deviating from its potential level. Mainly, in 1996 and 2003, the actual output showed the highest positive and negative deviations from its potential, respectively. The study also examined the effect of some macro-economic indicators on the output gap using the ARDL framework. Accordingly, inflation, trade openness, lending rate, and FDI are found to be having a significant effect on the output gap. Lending rate and trade openness have positive and significant effect, whereas inflation and FDI have a negative significant effect on the output gap. This study suggests; augmenting domestic production and utilization capacity, avoiding unrestricted importation and, export diversification, lowering lending rate and increasing FDI inflow; helps to reduce output gap. Besides, understanding the trend of potential and output gap would be helpful in dealing with inflation.

摘要

以实际产出与其潜力水平的百分比偏差衡量的产出差距是经济成就的指标。产出缺口已经成为制定政策的重要概念。在这项研究中，我们估算了潜在的产出和产出缺口，确定了其对埃塞俄比亚经济的一些宏观经济决定因素。通过使用1990年至2018年的年度数据，该研究使用HP过滤和生产函数方法估算了潜在的产出和产出缺口。因此，两种方法都表明，产出缺口在研究期内一直在波动，这表明实际产出前后不一致，并经常偏离其潜在水平。主要是在1996年和2003年，实际产出分别显示出与其潜力最大的正偏差和负偏差。该研究还使用ARDL框架研究了一些宏观经济指标对产出缺口的影响。因此，发现通货膨胀，贸易开放度，贷款利率和外国直接投资对产出缺口具有重大影响。贷款利率和贸易开放度具有积极和显着的影响，而通货膨胀和外国直接投资对产出缺口具有消极的显着影响。这项研究表明；扩大国内生产和利用能力，避免不受限制的进口和出口多样化，降低贷款利率和增加外国直接投资流入；有助于减少产出缺口。此外，了解潜力和产出缺口的趋势将有助于应对通货膨胀。发现外国直接投资和外国直接投资对产出差距有重大影响。贷款利率和贸易开放度具有积极和显着的影响，而通货膨胀和外国直接投资对产出缺口具有消极的显着影响。这项研究表明；扩大国内生产和利用能力，避免不受限制的进口和出口多样化，降低贷款利率和增加外国直接投资流入；有助于减少产出缺口。此外，了解潜力和产出缺口的趋势将有助于应对通货膨胀。发现外国直接投资和外国直接投资对产出差距有重大影响。贷款利率和贸易开放度具有积极和显着的影响，而通货膨胀和外国直接投资对产出缺口具有消极的显着影响。这项研究表明；扩大国内生产和利用能力，避免不受限制的进口和出口多样化，降低贷款利率和增加外国直接投资流入；有助于减少产出缺口。此外，了解潜力和产出缺口的趋势将有助于应对通货膨胀。避免不受限制的进口和出口多样化，降低贷款利率和增加外国直接投资流入；有助于减少产出缺口。此外，了解潜力和产出缺口的趋势将有助于应对通货膨胀。避免不受限制的进口和出口多样化，降低贷款利率和增加外国直接投资流入；有助于减少产出缺口。此外，了解潜力和产出缺口的趋势将有助于应对通货膨胀。