In this study, an updated probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) of Pakistan region is performed using the procedures developed for the US National Seismic Hazard Maps and the Earthquake Model of the Middle East (EMME14). It is based on the combination of conventional area sources model and the spatially smoothed gridded seismicity model with crustal faults. An updated earthquake catalogue is compiled using several international and national databases. The background seismicity of the study area is modeled using both the area source zones and the spatially smoothed gridded seismicity approach. A total of 110 crustal fault sources are modeled using their geological slip rates obtained from the database developed by the Global Earthquake Model (GEM). The Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ) is also modeled using a combination of inclined area source zone and the spatially smoothed seismicity approach. Several Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs) developed by the PEER Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) initiative are employed to estimate the hazard at bedrock level. The logic tree procedure is used to deal with the epistemic uncertainties associated with the source models and the GMPEs. The updated hazard maps for the Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and Spectral Accelerations (SA) at natural periods of 0.2 s, 1 s and 2 s are developed for the 10% and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years (DBE and MCE levels, respectively). The hazard curves and Uniform Hazard Spectra (UHS) for several major cities of Pakistan are also presented. The results provide an updated understanding of the seismic hazard in Pakistan. The presented hazard maps, curves and spectra can be used for the structural design of new buildings as well as the performance assessment of existing buildings. They also provide an improved basis for the policy formulation and planning for effective disaster risk reduction in the region.

在这项研究中，使用针对美国国家地震灾害图和中东地震模型（EMME14）开发的程序，执行了巴基斯坦地区的最新概率地震灾害评估（PSHA）。它基于常规面源模型和具有地壳断层的空间平滑网格地震活动性模型的结合。使用多个国际和国家数据库来汇编更新的地震目录。研究区域的背景地震活动性是使用区域源区域和空间平滑网格化地震活动性方法建模的。利用从全球地震模型（GEM）开发的数据库获得的地质滑动速率，对总共110个地壳断层源进行了建模。Makran俯冲带（MSZ）也使用倾斜区域震源带和空间平滑地震法的组合进行建模。由PEER下一代衰减（NGA）计划开发的几个地面运动预测方程（GMPE）用于估算基岩层的危害。逻辑树过程用于处理与源模型和GMPE相关的认知不确定性。针对50年内超过10％和2％的超过概率（DBE和MCE等级），绘制了自然周期为0.2 s，1 s和2 s时的峰值地面加速度（PGA）和频谱加速度（SA）的更新危害图。 ， 分别）。还介绍了巴基斯坦几个主要城市的危害曲线和统一危害谱（UHS）。结果提供了对巴基斯坦地震灾害的最新了解。提出的危险图谱，曲线和频谱可用于新建筑物的结构设计以及现有建筑物的性能评估。它们也为制定政策和规划该地区有效减少灾害风险提供了更好的基础。