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The behavior of exchange rate and stock returns in high and low interest rate environments
International Review of Economics & Finance ( IF 3.399 ) Pub Date : 2021-02-17 , DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2021.02.008
Afees A. Salisu , Xuan Vinh Vo

In this paper, we contribute to the literature in the following ways. First, we test whether stock returns respond differently to exchange rates in high and low interest rate environments. Second, we further probe into possible asymmetric effects of appreciation and depreciation on stock returns. Third, we examine the role of extreme (negative) low interest rate in the nexus among the low interest rate economies. Using panel data procedures that account for the salient features of the relevant variables, the following are discernible from the analyses. First, we establish contrasting evidence between low and high interest rate environments in relation to short run & long run results. Second, we find that the low interest rate group exhibits long run positive nexus while the high interest rate counterpart predominantly reveals short run negative nexus. Third, we show that all these outcomes remain true whether or not we account for the roles of macroeconomic factors including interest rate, inflation, and global oil price and alternative data frequency. Some insightful implications of our findings are highlighted and we do hope that investors and policy makers will find the results useful for decision making purpose.



中文翻译:

高低利率环境下的汇率和股票收益行为

在本文中,我们通过以下方式为文献做出了贡献。首先,我们测试股票收益率在高利率和低利率环境下对汇率的反应是否不同。其次,我们进一步探讨升值和贬值对股票收益的不对称影响。第三,我们研究了低利率经济体中极端(负)低利率在关系中的作用。使用考虑了相关变量的显着特征的面板数据程序,可以从分析中识别出以下内容。首先,我们建立了关于短期和长期结果的低利率和高利率环境之间的对比证据。第二,我们发现低利率群体表现出长期的正向关系,而高利率群体则主要表现出短期的负向关系。第三,我们证明所有这些结果都是正确的,无论我们是否考虑了包括利率,通胀,全球石油价格和替代数据频率在内的宏观经济因素的作用。我们的发现强调了一些有深刻见解的含义,我们希望投资者和政策制定者将发现这些结果对决策有用。

更新日期:2021-02-23
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