As climate change increases the frequency and severity of disasters, and population and social changes raise the public’s vulnerability to disaster events, societies face additional risk of multiple disaster events or other hazards occurring simultaneously. Such hazards involve significant uncertainty, which must be translated into concrete plans able to be implemented by disaster workers. Little research has explored how disaster managers incorporate different forms of knowledge and uncertainty into preparations for simultaneous hazards or disaster events, or how front-line disaster workers respond to and implement these plans. In this paper I draw on ethnographic research working as a wildland firefighter, interviews with firefighters and fire managers, and state and agency planning documents to examine preparations for two events occurring in Central Oregon in August 2017: (1) the height of wildfire season and (2) hundreds of thousands of anticipated visitors for a total solar eclipse. I find that different qualities of risk, hazard, and uncertainty across these two events were central to the development and implementation of disaster plans. Agency leaders devised worst-case scenario plans for the eclipse based on uncertain predictions regarding hazards from the eclipse and the occurrence of severe wildfires, aiming to eliminate the potential for unknown hazards. These plans were generally met with skepticism by front-line disaster workers. Despite the uncertainties that dominated eclipse-planning rhetoric, firefighters largely identified risks from the eclipse that were risks they dealt with in their daily work as firefighters. I conclude by discussing implications of these findings for conceptual understandings of disaster planning as well as contemporary concerns about skepticism and conspiracy theories directed at government planning and response to disaster events.

随着气候变化增加了灾害的频率和严重性，以及人口和社会变化增加了公众对灾害事件的脆弱性，社会面临着多重灾害事件或其他灾害同时发生的额外风险。此类危害涉及很大的不确定性，必须将其转化为能够由救灾人员实施的具体计划。很少有研究探讨灾害管理人员如何将不同形式的知识和不确定性纳入同时发生的灾害或灾害事件的准备工作中，或者一线灾害工作人员如何应对和实施这些计划。在这篇论文中，我利用作为一名荒地消防员的民族志研究，对消防员和消防管理人员的采访，以及州和机构规划文件，以检查 2017 年 8 月在俄勒冈州中部发生的两件事的准备情况：(1) 野火季节的高峰期和 (2) 预计将有数十万游客参加日全食。我发现这两个事件中不同性质的风险、危害和不确定性对于灾害计划的制定和实施至关重要。机构领导人根据对日食危害和严重野火发生的不确定预测，为日食制定了最坏情况计划，旨在消除未知危害的可能性。这些计划普遍遭到一线救灾工作人员的怀疑。尽管在计划日食的言论中占主导地位的不确定性，消防员在很大程度上确定了日食带来的风险，这些风险是他们作为消防员在日常工作中处理的风险。最后，我讨论了这些发现对灾害规划的概念理解的影响，以及当代对政府规划和应对灾害事件的怀疑和阴谋论的担忧。