Since 2015, there has been a sharp turnaround in US Democrats’ sympathies for Israel and the Palestinians. The percentage of Democrats with a preference for Israel is more or less tied with those preferring the Palestinians, wiping out Israel's historic advantage. Long‐term processes of liberalization and secularization have generated a more difficult environment for Israel and a more favorable one for the Palestinians, but they alone do not account for the shift. Rather, the fusing of these trends with changes in Israel triggered the change. The formation of a narrow right‐wing government in 2015 played a significant role. However, the primary cause of the collapse in sympathy for Israel was the way in which Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Republican‐first strategy to block the Iran nuclear deal turned Israel into a highly salient motif of partisanship at a time of unparalleled hostility between the two major US parties. While the fall in sympathy for Israel spans both wings of the Democratic Party, the sharp increase in sympathy for the Palestinians has occurred primarily among liberal Democrats. It is intertwined with the growing political salience of Black Lives Matter, which helps to generate a narrative associating racial discrimination in America with the plight of the Palestinians.

中文翻译：

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民主党人对以巴冲突的态度

自2015年以来，美国民主党人对以色列和巴勒斯坦人的同情发生了急剧转变。偏爱以色列的民主党人的比例与偏爱巴勒斯坦人的比例或多或少相关，从而抹去了以色列的历史优势。长期的自由化和世俗化进程给以色列带来了更加困难的环境，为巴勒斯坦人创造了更有利的环境，但仅凭这些并不能说明这一转变。相反，这些趋势与以色列变化的融合引发了变化。2015年成立了一个狭窄的右翼政府，发挥了重要作用。但是，以色列同情崩溃的主要原因是总理本杰明·内塔尼亚胡（Benjamin Netanyahu'）共和党的第一个阻止伊朗核协议的战略使以色列成为美国两大政党之间空前敌对的时候，党派关系的重要标志。虽然对以色列的同情下降跨越了民主党的两翼，但对巴勒斯坦人的同情急剧增加主要发生在自由民主党中。它与“黑人生活问题”（Black Lives Matter）日益增长的政治关注度交织在一起，这有助于产生一种将美国种族歧视与巴勒斯坦人的困境联系起来的叙述。