To study high-impact tropical cyclones (TCs) is of crucial importance due to their extraordinary destructive potential that leads to major losses in many coastal areas in the western North Pacific (WNP). Nevertheless, because of the rarity of high-impact TCs, it is difficult to construct a robust hazard assessment based on the historical best track records. This paper aims to address this issue by introducing a computationally simple and efficient approach to build a physically consistent high-impact TC event set with non-realised TC events in the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) archive. This event set contains more than 10 000 years of TC events. The temporal and spatial characteristics of the new event set are consistent with the historical TC climatology in the WNP. It is shown that this TC event set contains ∼100 and ∼77 times more very severe typhoons and violent typhoons than the historical records, respectively. Furthermore, this approach can be used to improve the return-period estimation of TC-associated extreme wind. Consequently, a robust extreme TC hazard assessment, reflective of the current long-term climate variability phase, can be achieved using this approach.

中文翻译：

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北太平洋西部台风发生风险的新观点

研究高影响力的热带气旋（TC）具有至关重要的意义，因为它们具有极强的破坏力，导致西北太平洋（WNP）西部许多沿海地区遭受重大损失。然而，由于高影响力TC的稀有性，很难基于历史最佳往绩记录来构建可靠的危害评估。本文旨在通过在THORPEX互动全球大合唱（TIGGE）档案中引入一种计算简单有效的方法来构建物理上一致的高影响力TC事件集，其中包括未实现的TC事件。该事件集包含10,000多年的TC事件。新事件集的时空特征与WNP中的历史TC气候一致。显示该TC事件集包含约100 个~77 倍以上的非常严重的台风和台风猛烈比历史纪录，分别。此外，该方法可用于改善与TC相关的极端风的返回期估计。因此，使用这种方法可以实现可靠的极端TC危害评估，反映了当前的长期气候可变性阶段。