Long‐term projections of the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation (QBO) remain uncertain. Using the high‐top “Middle Atmosphere” (MA) version of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) ModelE (E2.2‐AP), we show that increased CO₂ reduces the QBO period and weakens its amplitude, consistent with results from recent multimodel studies. The amplitude response is asymmetric, with the easterly phase weakening more than the westerly phase. Results from both coupled atmosphere‐ocean and climatologically fixed sea surface temperature simulations link the period response to changes in parameterized convective gravity wave fluxes, whereas the amplitude changes are more closely tied to changes in tropical upwelling. Comparisons of simulations with and without ozone‐dynamical feedbacks reveal that ozone feedbacks increase the QBO amplitude and period in pre‐industrial control simulations, and reduce the response of the amplitude to increased CO₂. The response of stratospheric tracers to projected changes in the QBO is also investigated. Similarity between results using fully interactive (trace gas and aerosol) versus linearized ozone chemical mechanisms suggests that the QBO response to CO₂ does not depend on additional chemical feedbacks beyond those associated with ozone, which implies that projected QBO changes may be credibly represented using simplified stratospheric ozone schemes.

中文翻译：

---

准两年一次振荡对二氧化碳增加的动力和痕量气体响应

准两年期振荡（QBO）的长期预测仍不确定。采用高顶“中层大气”（MA）美国航空航天局戈达德太空研究所的版本（GISS）MODELE（E2.2-AP），我们表明，增加CO ₂减少了QBO周期并减弱了其幅度，这与最近的多模型研究的结果一致。幅度响应是不对称的，东风相位比西风相位减弱得更多。大气-海洋和气候固定的海面温度耦合的模拟结果将周期响应与参数化对流重力波通量的变化联系起来，而振幅变化与热带上升流的变化更紧密相关。具有和不具有臭氧动力反馈的模拟的比较表明，臭氧反馈增加了前工业控制模拟中的QBO振幅和周期，并减小了振幅对增加的CO ₂的响应。还研究了平流层示踪剂对QBO中预计变化的响应。使用完全交互作用（痕量气体和气溶胶）与线性化臭氧化学机制的结果之间的相似性表明，对CO ₂的QBO响应不依赖于与臭氧有关的化学反馈，这不依赖其他化学反馈，这意味着可以使用简化的方法可靠地表示预计的QBO变化平流层臭氧方案。